-37/-38°C for Central Europe from GFS again! Last outputs: -28°C in 850 hPa above Carpathians!




Evening´s GFS outputs, from 18Z (Saturday, 6.2.2021) are very similar than previous outputs from 12Z of the same day /https://mkweather.com/2021/02/06/gfs-is-confirming-a-100-year-winter-temperatures-up-to-37c-are-real// or as extreme night ECMWF outputs /https://mkweather.com/2021/02/06/ecmwf-100-year-winter-38c-and-28c-in-850-hpa-over-carpathians-the-craziest-outputs-we-have-ever-seen-2021//, which expect possibility of frosts up to -37/-38°C in the coldest Cenral European basins and valleys.

A belt of extreme cold, Siberian air will be already in 7 days, around Valentine 14. February, stretching from Siberia towards England.

Mega-blocking pressure high over Scandinavia brings on its southern edge effective conditions for shift of Siberian air from Mongolia, Kazakhstan and southern Siberia above Europe, with really extreme, regionally historic conditions.

-28°C in 850 hPa over Carpathians - that is a result of the newest GFS. Who thought, that night outputs of ECMWF are only bad joke, he made a mistake - if extreme outputs confirm on Sunday, too, we have to start extreme coldwave take more seriously and start to think about effective warnings before deadly frosts, which haven´t appear in 3rd millnnium, since 1985-1987, the 2nd World War or 1929. Yes, all these records should be overcame regionally.

In Czechian frost valleys and basins, after year 2000 appeared too frosts below -38°C, other countries had problem with temperatures -35°C or lower.

According these outputs, tmperatures -37/-38°C should be possible not only Czechian, but too in Slovakian or Polish basins and valleys, in Germany should surprise extremes around -32°C, in Netherlands and Belgium around -20°C and in England around -16°C. Austria and Switzerland and Hungary should report -30°C, Romania -35°C. Balkanian countries should experience with temperatures -25/-30°C, Dolina di Campoulazzo in Italy should b close to -40°C again. In the Alps in France, temperature should drop again into interval -25/-30°C, but the Spain and Portugal won´t be so cold such as in January 2021. In populatd basins in Turkey, tempratures around -35/-40°C should appear, in northern Greece -20/-25°C is expected. In Russia and Kazakhstan, it will be between -40 and -50°C - main belt will be situated in central parts of European Russia. /estimates for all European counries in map below/.

Projected temperature anomalies above southern Poland are still extremely low, below -24°C.

Snow calamity should be even more shifted to the west - from the Netherlands above eastern England, while parts of Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia should experience with very hard snow calamity.

On Sunday and early next week we will se, if abnormally cold conditions stayy in outputs of forecast models - around 5 days before an extreme event forecasts should be considered such a highly precise.

Absolute national minimum temperatures during February 2021 coldwaves - estimates

Infographics: wxcharts.com, wetterzentrale.de

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