More than 1/2 runs expect in T850 hPa -15/-20°C (Central Europe), 06Z outputs were extremely cold

Winter outlook for February remains favorable for possible extremely cold times – while main run of GFS from 06Z expects still unseasonably strong frosts, with possibility of temperatures up to -30°C in the continental European coldest valleys, outputs from 12Z surprised by expectation of temperatures between -15/-20°C in Central Europe within more than 1/2 of runs, however, main run is warm, with heavy frosts only in northern half of Europe.

The coldest period is still forecasted between 5.-20. February – mainly northward from the Alps and the Carpathians, althought, still is possibility of extreme Siberian winter in northern Spain, northern Italy or northern Balkan.

Currently, in western Europe, is bringing snow and rain storm Justine, which will move across Europe eastward – after cyclone shift, very cold air will be shortly flowing over parts of Europe, with estimates of absolute minimum temperatures around Sunday and Monday 31.1.-1.2.2021 in the coldest frost Central European valleys somewhere into interval -17/-22°C.

Interesting is, too, that predicted frosts (06Z main run), maybe up to -25/-30°C should hit Alpine basins and valleys in France, too, e.g. in region of Le Breviéne, on border with Switzerland.

Very strong frosts were returned for the UK and Ireland, with possibility of -15/-20°C in valleys in Scotland.

Peak of the winter was on 06Z outputs forecasted still around 13. Feburary 2021, what is 2 weeks far, yet, therefore, it should be still updated to milder values during next period.

One thing is certain – expectations are from cold to very cold and extremely cold, therefore stay safe and warm – possible early spring conditions are furthermore predicted only after 20. Feburary 2021.

06Z outputs from 29. January 2021 for hit parts of Europe /

GFS Ensemble for chosen European cities /

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.