An ECMWF 6-week forecast already sees for the period until 20. December 2021 and we should give the 1st estimates, which weather should hit parts of Europe, North America, and Asia at Christmas 2021!
While in the next 5 weeks, mainly in Europe, cold weather patterns are according to ECMWF forecasted, already a week before Christmas (13.-20. December 2021), very warm Atlantic air is forecasted to interrupt a very long and cold period, with a traditional singularity of Christmas warming from northwest to southeast.
It´s possible, that while the northern and western half of Europe will be hit by this “Christmas warming”, Southeast – mainly Balkan, or Ukraine, Italy, Greece, and Turkey should stay in the colder sector, yet.
A very warm pattern is forecasted for eastern Canada and the southern Rocky Mountains, the USA and Northeast, too, with only neutral temperature anomalies in western Canada and Southeast and Northwest, the USA.
Mexico, the Middle East should be very hot and Siberia above temperature average, too.
Some coldwaves are forecasted only in NE China or SW India.
This type of weather looks more like NAO+ (AO+) such as NAO- (AO-).
The last update of Winter 2021/2022 forecast you should visit here /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-northern-hemisphere-an-awakening-solar-activity-la-nina-neutral-nao-ao-wet-mjo-and-iod-to-drier-mjo-and-iod-qbo-ne-pacific-warm-blob-aao// – after warmer period around Christmas and New Year´s Eve, the next period with severe frosts should come to Europe in January 2022, while in North America and many parts of Asia and North Africa, a peak of the winter in February 2022, is possible.
This forecast is only preliminary and Mkweather will be updated forecast for Christmas during the next 50 days, according to ECMWF updates of the 6-week forecast and other available sources.
Before Christmas, Europe and many parts of the Northern Hemisphere will be experiencing long-term AO- and cold conditions in the next 50-day period /https://mkweather.com/scandinavia-30c-already-in-5-days/; https://mkweather.com/the-uk-frosts-up-to-10c-or-even-12c-will-be-possible/; https://mkweather.com/arctic-winter-up-to-15c-in-france-and-germany-and-10c-in-benelux-and-spain-in-next-week-possible/; https://mkweather.com/20c-frosts-for-continental-europe-are-forecasted-extreme-winter-should-hit-already-around-15-november-2021/; https://mkweather.com/miercurea-ciuc-romania-with-8-days-with-temperatures-7-11c-before-a-heatwave/; https://mkweather.com/extreme-coldwaves-in-continental-europe-confirmed-ensembles-cold-weather-should-be-lasting-up-to-45-days-with-a-peak-around-20-november-10-december-2021-mkweather-estimates/; https://mkweather.com/be-prepared-for-an-extremely-long-and-strong-coldwave-arctic-blasts-in-europe-between-10-november-15-december-are-expected/; https://mkweather.com/the-6-week-daily-forecast-for-the-wider-european-region-from-gismeteo-until-5-december-2021/; https://mkweather.com/winter-will-come-earlier-than-was-forecasted-30c-in-scandinavia-20c-in-central-europe-and-10c-in-british-island-around-10-november-is-possible//.