Heatwaves in Europe Should Be Even More Deadly: Spain and Turkey +46°C, France and Italy +42°C, Balkans, Continental Europe +40°C, the UK, Scandinavia +35°C

Marek Kučera June 9, 2025 3 min read

As summer 2025 unfolds, meteorologists are issuing stark warnings: Europe is bracing for one of the deadliest early-summer heatwaves in its recorded history. Forecast models from several leading climate institutes predict extreme and prolonged heat across the continent, with Spain and Turkey potentially soaring to +46°C, France and Italy nearing +42°C, and much of the Balkans and Central Europe exceeding +40°C. Even traditionally cooler regions such as the United Kingdom and Scandinavia are expected to reach highs of +35°C.

This June’s heatwave is being fueled by a combination of persistent high-pressure systems, reduced Atlantic storm activity, and increasingly frequent incursions of hot, dry air from the Sahara.

Region-by-Region Breakdown

Spain and Turkey are forecast to bear the brunt of this summer’s scorching heat, with highs possibly exceeding +46°C. These temperatures approach — and in some places may exceed — national records. The cities of Córdoba, Seville, and Adana are under red-level heat warnings, and health authorities have advised residents to stay indoors during peak sunlight hours.

France and Italy are not far behind, with temperatures forecast to reach or surpass +42°C. Paris, Lyon, Rome, and Milan may experience extended periods of sweltering heat. In urban centers, the “urban heat island” effect will likely push overnight lows above 28°C, offering little relief and increasing health risks, particularly for the elderly and vulnerable.

The Balkans and Continental Europe — including Austria, Hungary, Serbia, and Romania — are forecast to see +40°C locally. While these regions are accustomed to summer heat, the projected duration and severity are exceptional. Emergency water distribution, hospital preparedness, and public cooling stations are being activated across several cities.

The UK and Scandinavia, regions typically insulated from extreme summer heat by maritime and Arctic influences, are facing an unprecedented warming spell. Forecasts suggest highs of +35°C across southern England, Denmark, and southern Sweden. Though seemingly moderate compared to southern Europe, such temperatures can be dangerous in societies less prepared for heat extremes — both infrastructurally and behaviorally.

Deadly Consequences

The human toll of heatwaves is often underestimated. In 2003, an infamous European heatwave led to over 70,000 excess deaths. Today, improved forecasting and emergency response protocols exist, but rising global temperatures and aging populations continue to raise the stakes. This summer’s projected temperatures may surpass those of 2003, making the coming weeks potentially catastrophic.

In addition to health impacts, agriculture, infrastructure, and energy systems are expected to be stressed. Crop yields may decline due to drought and heat stress, power grids will be strained by surging air-conditioning demand, and transportation — especially rail and air — may face disruptions due to heat-induced material expansion and safety restrictions.

Looking Ahead

Europe’s looming heatwave is not an isolated event. It is part of a broader pattern tied to global climate shifts. As the continent braces for the coming weeks, meteorologists stress the importance of vigilance, adaptation, and long-term mitigation. The forecast is clear — and it is a warning.

Table: GFS and our estimates.