Catastrophically Dry July for Eastern Europe Predicted: A Close Look at the NOAA CFSv2 Forecast

The 2025 summer in Eastern Europe is shaping up to be one of the driest on record, according to the latest predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). The map from the forecast, which outlines expected precipitation anomalies for the month of July, paints a concerning picture of widespread dryness across the region. This detailed map, available from the NOAA website, shows significant deviations from normal rainfall, signaling a potential crisis for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystem health in many countries.

Understanding the Forecast: What the Map Shows

The map in question provides an outlook for July 2025, with the precipitation anomaly expressed in terms of how much more or less rain is expected compared to the historical average. The colors on the map highlight regions that will experience significantly drier than usual conditions. Most notably, several countries in Eastern Europe, including Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria, Serbia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and parts of Russia are indicated to face substantial drought conditions, with precipitation levels expected to fall far below the historical averages.

Key Features of the Map:

Severe Dryness Across Central and Eastern Europe:
The central and eastern parts of the continent, stretching from Hungary and Romania down into Moldova and parts of Ukraine, are shown to experience an extreme deficit in precipitation. These areas are forecast to see rainfall totals well below their 30-year climatological averages. For many of these countries, this predicted rainfall anomaly surpasses a 50% reduction in precipitation, with some regions showing values closer to 75% less than normal. This extreme dryness is categorized as catastrophic, with significant implications for both local populations and the environment.
Widespread Precipitation Deficit:
The map is filled with vast swathes of light yellow to deep orange hues across Eastern Europe. These colors signify areas where there is a high likelihood of much less rainfall compared to the normal expected precipitation. These deviations are stark: some areas within the forecast range could see drought conditions worsen to levels not observed in recent years. A few countries in the Balkans, such as Bulgaria, or Serbia, also show some dryness, although not as severe as the conditions to the northeast.
Southern and Southeastern Europe at Risk:
While the primary focus of this forecast is on Eastern Europe, the map also highlights some regions in Southern and Southeastern Europe facing similar challenges. In particular, parts of Turkey, and the Adriatic region (including Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro) are projected to have below-average precipitation as well, although the levels are not as extreme as in the Eastern countries. The combination of dry conditions here and in Eastern Europe could compound regional water shortages and agricultural stress.
Elevated Temperatures:
While the map does not directly provide temperature data, it’s important to note that dry conditions are typically accompanied by higher-than-normal temperatures during the summer months. Given that Eastern Europe is already experiencing rising temperatures due to climate change, it is likely that the areas marked for drought will also face exceptionally hot weather in July. The combination of extreme heat and lack of rainfall exacerbates the effects of drought, leading to increased evaporation rates and further depletion of soil moisture.

What Does This Mean for Eastern Europe?

Agricultural Impacts:

Agriculture in Eastern Europe is deeply reliant on consistent rainfall patterns, particularly during the critical growing months of spring and summer. With the forecast of below-average rainfall in July, many crops—especially those dependent on summer rains such as corn, wheat, and barley—are at risk. Farmers across the affected regions could face crop failures, reduced yields, and the need to rely on irrigation systems that may already be strained due to reduced water availability. This, in turn, will lead to economic losses and potential food shortages.

Crops that typically thrive in Mediterranean climates, such as grapes for winemaking in Hungary, Romania, and Serbia, could also be at risk. The predicted rainfall deficit could lead to poor harvests, affecting both the quantity and quality of wine production. Similarly, staple crops in Ukraine and parts of Russia may struggle to reach maturity without sufficient water. Countries like Romania, which rely heavily on agriculture, will face serious economic challenges if this dry forecast holds.

Water Resources and Hydropower:

Water scarcity is one of the most concerning outcomes of extended dry spells. Eastern Europe, home to several major river systems such as the Danube, the Dniester, and the Volga, relies on consistent water flow to support drinking water supplies, agriculture, and hydroelectric power generation. A prolonged drought could reduce water levels in these rivers and reservoirs, threatening not only the availability of water for irrigation and daily consumption but also the generation of hydroelectric power.

Many countries in the region are increasingly turning to hydropower as a clean energy source. If water levels fall too low, hydroelectric plants may not be able to generate sufficient electricity, leading to energy shortages. This scenario could trigger a cascade of problems, from price increases in energy markets to blackouts in cities.

Wildfire Risks:

Drought and high temperatures also create ideal conditions for wildfires, which have become more frequent in Europe in recent years due to climate change. In July, Eastern Europe could see an increased frequency of wildfires, particularly in the Balkans, where forests are susceptible to heat and dryness. These wildfires could cause widespread damage to forests, homes, and infrastructure, not to mention the devastating loss of wildlife.

Ecosystem Disruptions:

Beyond the human impact, ecosystems in Eastern Europe are also at risk. Reduced rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures can stress plant and animal species, especially those dependent on moist environments. The prolonged lack of water can lead to the death of vegetation, affecting grazing animals and disrupting food chains. Aquatic species in rivers and lakes could face oxygen depletion as water levels fall, further diminishing biodiversity.

The predicted drought also threatens soil quality. In regions where agriculture relies heavily on natural precipitation, the prolonged dryness will degrade soil health, leading to more frequent dust storms and erosion. This could have long-term consequences on land productivity, making it more difficult for farmers to recover in future seasons.

Conclusion: A Grim Outlook for July 2025

As Eastern Europe braces for what could be a catastrophic drought in July 2025, the forecast from the NOAA CFSv2 highlights the significant challenges the region faces. The widespread precipitation deficits predicted for much of Eastern Europe could have far-reaching consequences for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. This unprecedented dryness is further compounded by the broader trend of rising temperatures and climate instability in the region.

🌍 July 2025 Europe: Regions with Widespread Precipitation Anomaly ≤ –0.4 mm / day

Country	Region / Area	Approximate Anomaly	Drought Risk Level	Notes
Ukraine	Central & South-East	–1.5 to –2.0	High	Severe drought risk
Romania	Most regions except NW	–1.2 to –1.8	High	Widespread dryness
Moldova	Entire territory	–1.3 to –1.7	High	Likely drought
Belarus	Central & South	–1.0 to –1.5	Moderate to High	Dry spells expected
Bulgaria	Northern & Central	–1.0 to –1.5	High	Agricultural concerns
Hungary	Central and East	–0.8 to –1.3	Moderate	Drying trend
Slovakia	Eastern half	–0.6 to –1.0	Mild to Moderate	Crop stress possible
Czechia	Eastern and Southern parts	–0.5 to –1.0	Mild to Moderate	Dryness building
Austria	Eastern region	–0.5 to –1.0	Mild	Moderate rainfall deficit
Baltic States	Entire Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania	–0.8 to –1.3	Moderate to High	Fire risk and dryness
Serbia	Northern and Central	–0.6 to –1.0	Mild to Moderate	Dry spells developing

Notes:

Only regions clearly colored orange/red on the map with anomalies ≤ –0.4 included.
Western Europe (France, Spain, Italy, Germany, UK) and Scandinavia mostly show anomalies > –0.4 or neutral, so excluded.
For some countries (e.g., Bulgaria, Romania), dryness is widespread across most regions.