40°C heatwave in Continental Europe is possible already in 10 Days

Early-Season Extreme Heat Threatens Central France and Hungary

Meteorological models are sounding the alarm: an intense and potentially record-challenging heatwave may hit Continental Europe around 25 June 2025, with daytime highs potentially reaching or exceeding 40°C. According to the latest GFS (Global Forecast System) forecasts, central regions of France and Hungary appear to be at the epicenter of this early-season heat surge.

Heatwave Hotspots: Central France and the Carpathian Basin

Central France is projected to see maximum temperatures in the range of 38°C to 40°C, particularly across inland areas such as the Loire Valley, the Centre-Val de Loire, and parts of eastern Nouvelle-Aquitaine. These values could approach early summer records.
In Hungary and neighboring areas (including southern Slovakia, eastern Austria, and western Romania), conditions appear equally severe. Forecasts indicate temperatures peaking at 38 to 40°C, especially across lowland areas of the Pannonian Plain.

These areas are traditionally vulnerable to extreme heat when strong upper-level ridging traps warm, dry air for several days—a scenario now developing on forecast maps for the third week of June.

Meteorological Setup Behind the Heat

A strong subtropical high-pressure system is forecast to stretch northward from North Africa across the Mediterranean into central Europe, allowing hot Saharan air to surge deep into the continent.
The Azores High and a blocked Atlantic jet stream will reinforce this ridge, preventing cooler oceanic air from reaching the continent and allowing temperatures to build rapidly over several days.

How Rare Is This in June?

Reaching or exceeding 40°C before July is very rare historically in Continental Europe. Such early-season extremes are becoming more frequent, with soil dryness, changing circulation patterns, and stronger high-pressure systems all playing a role in amplifying heat.

Risks and Preparedness

Health: Heatwaves remain one of Europe’s deadliest weather threats. Vulnerable populations should be protected, and hydration campaigns may be needed.
Agriculture: Heat during sensitive crop stages can reduce yields, particularly for cereals and fruit.
Power demand: The surge in air conditioning use could stress power grids in urban centers.
Fire risk: Hot, dry conditions increase the danger of wildfires, especially in grassy and forested areas.