+46°C for Spain at the End of June?

Climate watchers and weather enthusiasts are closely monitoring an alarming forecast from the GFS model, which suggests the possibility of temperatures reaching up to +46°C in Andalusia, southern Spain, near the end of June 2025. If realized, this would rank the highest temperature ever recorded in Spain and Europe during early summer (in June).

The model predicts a strong heat dome settling over the western Mediterranean, fueled by an intense Saharan air mass pushing northward. This persistent high-pressure system would trap scorching, dry air over Andalusia, driving temperatures to unprecedented heights in late June—well before the typical peak of the summer season.

Such a scenario is consistent with recent trends showing earlier and more intense heatwaves in the Mediterranean basin, largely driven by climate change and desertification processes in North Africa. Andalusia, already one of Europe’s hottest regions, is especially vulnerable to these extreme heat surges.

Temperatures near +46°C would have severe implications: public health risks would soar, with increased heat-related illnesses; agriculture would suffer, with stress on crops and livestock; wildfire danger would become critical; and energy systems would face extreme pressure due to soaring demand for cooling.

While exact forecasts this far ahead carry uncertainty, the GFS projection underscores the urgent need for preparedness and mitigation. The possibility of a near +50°C day in Spain before July serves as a stark reminder of how climate extremes are intensifying and arriving earlier.