Possibility of the Strongest Heatwave in Spain (+48°C) and France (+46°C) Ever already in June 2025(!)
Marek Kučera 
Europe braces for a potentially historic heatwave as meteorological models begin converging on what could become one of the most extreme early-season heat events ever recorded. Forecast simulations suggest that parts of southern Spain could approach +48 °C, while southern France might reach an unprecedented +46 °C — all before July even begins.
📈 Model Outlook: June Scorcher Brewing
The latest extended-range runs from the GFS and ECMWF models (forecast hours 192–240) are showing persistent heat domes forming over southwestern Europe, with 850 hPa temperatures climbing as high as +28 to +32 °C over large areas of Andalusia, Extremadura, Occitanie, and Provence. These values at 1,500 meters above sea level correspond to surface temperatures of 44–48 °C in optimal conditions.
If verified, this could lead to:
- Spain: Up to +48.0 °C, possibly in Córdoba, Sevilla, or Badajoz
- France: Up to +46.0 °C, a shocking value possibly reached in the lower Rhône valley, such as Nîmes or Carpentras
🌡️ Historical Context: Records in Jeopardy
A +48 °C reading in Spain in June would obliterate the national June record and match the highest temperature ever recorded in Spain — which is 47.6 °C, set in August 2021 in Montoro.
For France, anything above 46 °C would break the national all-time record, which was already set in June — underscoring how unusually early this potential wave is.
🧠 Meteorological Setup
Key factors contributing to this threat:
- A massive Omega block over central Europe, locking in hot air masses from North Africa.
- Saharan air intrusions, leading to low humidity but intense solar radiation.
- Subsidence heating from high-pressure systems compressing air.
- Stagnant conditions — allowing temperatures to build over days with no cooling relief.
This combination, if sustained, would create textbook conditions for a megawave.
🔥 Health and Infrastructure Implications
If the forecasts materialize:
- Public health systems could face strain due to heatstroke and dehydration.
- Power grids may be stressed by air conditioning demand.
- Agriculture could suffer from extreme evapotranspiration and plant stress.
- Fire risk would soar in Mediterranean pine and brush regions.
Authorities in Spain and France are already monitoring the forecasts closely, with heat alerts likely to be issued in the coming days.
📆 Too Early? Not Anymore.
That such extreme temperatures are being forecast for mid-to-late June is an alarming signal of climate acceleration. Previously, such values were confined to late July or August. The increasing frequency and intensity of early-season heatwaves may soon redefine what is “normal” for European summers.
🛰️ What to Watch
- GFS and ECMWF updates: Look for consistency in 850 hPa heat cores.
- Local model downscaling: Watch for urban amplification (Madrid, Zaragoza, Marseille).
- Wet-bulb temperatures: Dangerously high values may approach 30 °C in humid zones.
- Wind direction: A key factor determining if Saharan air pushes deep into Europe.
🚨 Conclusion: A Historic Heatwave on the Horizon?
With record-breaking numbers appearing on multiple reliable models, Europe could be heading toward an unprecedented June heatwave. While uncertainty remains about the exact peak and location, the signals are strong enough to raise early alarm.
If this materializes, June 2025 could go down in history not as the start of summer — but as the start of a new normal.
Expected Temperature at 2 Meters. Needed to Add +3°C for National MAX. Source: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=16&model=gfs&var=17&time=378&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6
Illustration picture. Source. wetterzentrale.de
