Tropical development in the Caribbean until the half of June 2025

Between June 6 and 15, 2025, meteorologists are closely monitoring the western Caribbean for potential tropical development. While no named storms have formed yet, recent model forecasts and atmospheric conditions suggest an increased likelihood of tropical activity during this period.

🌊 GFS Model Outlook: June 6–15

The Global Forecast System (GFS) model indicates a potential for tropical development in the western Caribbean between June 7 and 15. This aligns with typical early-season activity, where systems often form in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The GFS suggests the formation of a low-pressure area that could move northward into the Gulf of Mexico. However, it’s important to note that ensemble forecasts show varying outcomes, and confidence in these predictions remains moderate.

🌀 Central American Gyre & Atmospheric Conditions

A Central American Gyre (CAG) is a broad area of low pressure that can enhance tropical development in the early hurricane season. Current observations indicate the presence of a CAG, which could contribute to the formation of a tropical system in the region. Additionally, sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are above average, providing favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development.

📰 Recent News Highlights

WESH 2 News: Meteorologists report that models show possible tropical development during the second week of June, with potential movement into the Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather: Forecasters note that a window for homegrown tropical development will open during the second week of June, with possible impacts in the United States.
The Washington Post: Reports a developing tropical system in the eastern Pacific, expected to be named Alvin, which could influence atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin.

While no tropical systems have formed yet in the Atlantic basin as of early June 2025, the combination of favorable atmospheric conditions and model forecasts suggests that the western Caribbean should be closely monitored for potential tropical development in the coming days.