Updated Summer forecast for the USA form NOAA

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has released its summer 2025 outlook for the United States, indicating a season characterized by above-average temperatures and variable precipitation patterns across the country. This forecast, covering June through August, suggests that many regions will experience hotter-than-normal conditions, with some areas also facing drier-than-average weather.

Temperature Outlook

The summer 2025 temperature outlook predicts a high likelihood of above-average temperatures across much of the contiguous United States. The greatest probabilities for elevated temperatures are centered over the interior West and southwestern Texas, where there is a 70% to 80% chance of experiencing hotter-than-normal conditions. The eastern half of the U.S., including the northern Plains, southern Texas, and areas from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic coast, also show a significant probability of above-average temperatures. This widespread warmth is attributed to persistent atmospheric patterns and the ongoing impacts of climate change

Precipitation Outlook

The precipitation forecast for summer 2025 is more varied. Much of the Southeast and East Coast, extending into New England, is expected to receive above-normal precipitation. Conversely, regions such as the Northwest coast, Upper Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Central and Southern Plains, including parts of Montana, are anticipated to face below-normal rainfall, with probabilities reaching up to 60%. These patterns suggest potential challenges for agriculture and water resource management in the drier regions

Drought Conditions

Drought is forecasted to persist and potentially expand over large areas of the western half of the country, particularly across the Plains. Dry soil conditions, combined with the anticipated warmer temperatures, contribute to this outlook. However, some areas, like the south-central High Plains, may see drought removal due to recent precipitation and favorable forecasts for June.

Conclusion

The summer of 2025 is shaping up to be notably warmer across much of the United States, with certain regions also facing drier conditions. These forecasts highlight the importance of preparedness for heat-related health risks, potential drought impacts, and the broader implications of a changing climate. Residents and policymakers are encouraged to stay informed and take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of these anticipated weather patterns.