A peak of European New Year´s blast is shifting to the 2nd January 2022 pentad: Below -40°C in Scandinavia and -25°C in mid-latitudes expected

Already in the last period, we were informed about an expected extremely cold Siberian blast, forecast to hit Europe between 31. December 2021 – 9. January 2022 /https://mkweather.com/the-long-term-forecast-for-europe-until-30-january-2022//.

Before the severe Siberian blast, heavy snowfall for parts of Europe was forecast /https://mkweather.com/the-long-term-snow-forecast-for-europe-until-30-january-2022//.

Currently, the situation appears a little warmer, with a longer warmer period between maximally 25. December 2021 – 5. January 2022 and subsequent severe frosts with a peak around the 2nd January 2022 decade.

According to the last runs, minimum temperatures below -40°C in Scandinavia and below -25°C in continental, Eastern Europe and Balkan should be rarely in basins or valleys below 1000 MASL (in Eastern Europe lowlands) possible.

From the “Christmas coldwave”, the lowest temperature in European mid-latitudes was measured in Switzerland around 1200 MASL, only -33,3°C, so far, on 22. December 2021 /https://mkweather.com/amburnex-combe-switzerland-333c-the-strongest-frosts-of-winter-2021-2022-in-continental-europe-so-far//.

On maps below are the most interesting outputs for European regions for mostly 6.-8. January 2021, but it’s probable, that coldwave should continue farther, minimally until 10. January 2022.

Still is not fully excluded, that abnormally cold main runs will return until the end of the year, with legendary cold early January 2022.

All will be depend on the decline of the AO index in the next days /https://mkweather.com/12-30-runs-of-gefs-expect-an-extremely-low-ao-index-from-5-to-7-for-christmas-time-and-new-year// – favorable for severe frosts are mainly lower values (around -4 or -5).

Upcoming warm spell will be associated with a shifting of extremely warm air from the Atlantic and Greenland /https://mkweather.com/greenland-warmer-than-the-mediterranean-air-from-the-us-heatwaves-in-the-arctic-nuuk-130c-only-02c-below-all-time-december-record-qaanaq-northern-greenland-83c-all-tim// above Europe.

Meanwhile, parts of Asia expect severe cooldowns after Christmas /https://mkweather.com/india-with-red-warnings-before-extreme-frosts-dras-203c-in-dras-11c-in-churu-290-masl-regionally-the-lowest-temperatures-since-1997/; https://mkweather.com/christmas-in-north-korea-35c-japan-with-1-meter-of-snowfall// and to the USA (and Canada) we will look in the series of 6 articles, soon.

Source: wetterzentrale.de