Autumn forecast for Canada: NAO- warm autumn (and cold autumn in Europe)?

Accuweather has published a forecast for autumn 2020 for Canada, too.

From infographics is evident, that many parts, mainly northern and eastern Canada are waiting warm autumn 2020.

Only one area with temperature below average would be northwest of the territory (and part of Alaska).

Precipitation would be below in northern areas and above average in southern densely populated areas.

Yes, this patern reminds of NAO- / AO- behaviour (negative phase of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations). When is Icelandic low weak, Europe is expecting colder autumn (or winter) and reversely, during NAO+, in Canada and Great Lakes area is during autumn or winter anomalously cold and in Europe very warm.

The new Accuweather forecast therefore fit in raw features to our forecast for autumn and winter 2020/2021 /http://First forecast for Winter 2020/21: early powerful coldwaves (NOV/DEC), then weakening of cold pattern and warm (JAN/FEB/MAR)/.

Important is mainly positive temperature anomaly over northern and eastern parts of Canada – when is Icelandic low deep, from north over this region flows very cold Arctic air in increased frequency.

Therefore Europeans – be prepare for more powerful cold blasts during autumn 2020, than usual!

Autumn 2020 forecast for Canada:

Circulation patterns during positive (NAO+) and negative (NAO-) phase:

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.