One of the possible theories for the next centuries is saying about a significant weakening of solar activity and a possible interrupting of extreme global warming.
Despite the controversy, which is associated in scientific circles around this theme, a weaker solar cycle than was forecast, Solar Cycle 24, partially caused, that forecasts for the beginning, Solar Cycle 25, were more careful and it appears, that the start of the cycle is quite surprising.
After a minimum of solar activity, moreover, with La Nina and many broken historic temperature records in the last few years, unexpectedly strong solar activity was observed at the end of the year 2021.
Sunspot counts have exceeded predictions for 15 straight months, geomagnetic activity has nearly tripled since the new solar cycle began according to spaceweather.com.
In the news feed, reports about “outrunning the official forecast of Solar Cycle 25” are spreading and there is a question, how impact should have a stronger solar activity to weather around the world in the following years.
Stronger solar activity should mean mainly the calmer arrival of El Nino in Autumn 2022 /https://mkweather.com/el-nino-is-coming-autumn-2022-a-big-changes-in-circulation-patterns-worldwide// (a Little Ice Age with very weak solar activity had approximately 2/3 El Nino years), which should impact the next circulation patterns around the world, too.
E.g., La Nina means more AO+ and NAO+ phases, while El Nino more AO- and NAO- phases around the year, La Nina is linked with a stronger monsoon season in Asia and more fertile years around the world…
There should be some contribution to a warming of the next years, but for severe impact into relatively short-term warming is needed long-termly strong solar activity (near several strong sun cycles, subsequent global warming is evident).
These are many questions that are associated with surprisingly stronger solar eruptions – will be strong solar activity continuing or it´s only an usual not-predictable anomaly and sunspots will be again at or below forecast levels, soon?
If the stronger solar activity will be continuing in the next years, it should mean a little weaker expected El Nino, which doesn´t immediately mean bad scenarios – El Nino is namely associated with widespread heatwaves, drought, and wildfires around the world during a growing season; Winters in weaker El Nino in mid-latitudes thanks weaker AO-/ NAO- should be little milder, too.
Although it’s a long-term issue, solar parameters will stay in Mkweather watch in the next months and years and we will bring updates already during 2022.
Source: spaceweather.com, NOAA /https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression/