Winter 2021/2022 forecast: High chances for NAO- in Autumn 2021 and Winter 2021/2022

It´s almost a half of Summer 2021 and forecast models offer us the next interesting forecast outputs for the next winter season – mainly for Autumn 2021 and Winter 2021/2022.

In this article, we chose 2 interesting forecasts for estimates, how should look the next 2 seasons in Europe / North America / Northern Hemisphere.

The first graph from ECMWF is showing a 6-week forecast of the NAO index until January 2021. We changed colours on the graphs and the possibility of negative NAO phase we dyed blue, while a possibility of positive NAO is marked in red.

From the graph is evident, that from September 2021 to January 2022, many runs of ECMWF expect strong NAO- phase, while NAO+ should be overall weaker.

The second picture is showing the NCEP CFSv2 forecast of geopotential (air pressure) for the Northern Hemisphere /you should compare it with previous outputs: https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-in-europe-should-start-very-early-nao-and-cold-airflow-are-predicted-2021-2022-winter//.

Cold temperature anomaly above Europe in November and December thanks to low geopotential above Scandinavia and cold blasts on its back side is preserved (and Winter 2021/2022 should come after colder NAO- Autumn 2021 really very early), but in January 2021, low geopotential anomaly is forecasted to shift above its traditional area above Iceland, what mean a possible transition into NAO+ phase and warmer conditions in Europe, while in eastern Canada and the USA is this pattern associated with extremely cold conditions. The predictor of the NAO+ phase in January should be moreover a strong Azores anticyclone, too.

Such a conclusion of this seasonal forecast we should expect mainly colder NAO- Autumn 2021 (in Europe, but thanks to the strong Hurricane season 2021 in the eastern USA and eastern Canada, too) and the early arrival of Winter 2021/2022 in Europe is confirming for now, while circulation patterns in January 2022 appears a half year before uncertain.

At all, strengthening of La nina weather pattern during Autumn 2021 and Winter 2021/2022 is forecasted /https://mkweather.com/the-next-cold-winter-strong-la-nina-in-winter-2021-2022-forecasted//, what should mean the next potential for severe coldwaves across Northern Hemisphere, similarly such as during the last winter season.