Long-term forecast until 10. January 2022! Winter in Europe will return around Christmas and New Year 2021-22, especially in the central, southern, and eastern sectors

In the last long-term forecast, it appeared, that extremely cold winter will return into parts of a wider European region in 3 peaks around Christmas and New Year 2022 /https://mkweather.com/long-term-forecast-until-2-january-2022-extreme-arctic-winter-in-europe-until-new-year//.

Forecasts have little changed – mainly between 12.-16. December isn´t forecasted coldwave, such as before, but significant warm period, but cold forecasts for Christmas 2021 and New Year 2022 are staying in very cold contours – especially for continental Europe, eastern and southeastern sector of Europe, including neighboring parts of Asia and Africa.

While British Islands, Scandinavia, Western Europe, and Iberia should be during the winter holidays warmer, mentioned parts of Europe – mainly Central Europe, Eastern Europe, Balkan and the eastern half of the Mediterranean should be preparing for the strengthening of the winter.

Partially, it should be caused by shifting of anomalously cold air masses on the backside of destabilizing part of polar vortex eastward and southward, partly by the next circulation patterns, which should make favorable airflow from Eurasian continent, while above Greenland will accumulate the next doses of extremely cold air around the last days of the year 2021, with a possible European outbreak in January 2022.

For continental parts of Europe and large parts of the Mediterranean (excluding Iberia) are even outputs for Christmas time and New Year colder such as during an upcoming peak of coldwave around 10. December 2021 – frosts in valleys and basins below 1000 MASL under -20°C, or -25°C, maybe rarely up to -30°C and snowy conditions in continental, Eastern Europe and Balkan will be therefore still possible.

Very cold will be Turkey, northeastern Africa, and the northern Middle East, with snowing in the mountains, severe frosts in highly elevated basins (in Turkey around -30°C in Erzurum region) and frosts and cold weather in the northern Middle East, here with a possible regional snowfall around 500 – 1000 MASL.

Northwestern Africa will be already warmer, than during a peak of winter in the first decade of December 2021.

Cold weather has a bad impact on the virological situation, heart attack rates, many kinds of cancer, or should cause hypothermia.

Blizzards should cause widespread problems on roads, highways, or railways and power outages, including metropolitan areas.

Recapitulation:

WARMER CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR 2021-2022: Scandinavia, British Islands, Western Europe, Iberia, NW Africa

COLD CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR 2021-2022: Central Europe, Balkan (or maybe Italy), Greece, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Caucasian region, NE Africa, Middle East

Source: gismeteo.com