Autumn 2021 forecast for Asia: Strong monsoon for S/SE/E Asia, hot and dry in the Middle East, late Siberian cold blasts in W Siberia and snow calamities in E Siberia




At end of August 2021, we are bringing Autumn 2021 forecasts for continents.

As the third continent in a row, we should investigate Asia.

Overall, re-strengthening of the La Nina pattern during the next months is expected, which should mean colder Earth and mainly – stronger rainfall in southern and eastern monsoon Asia.

QBO will be still in its easterly (colder) phase, maybe with the transition into the westerly phase around November 2021.

AO / NAO forecasts promise neutral, slightly NAO+ signals for September, NAO- signals for October, and NAO neutral to negative signal for November 2021.

Hurricane season 2021/2022 should be a little weaker than was forecasted, which should mean fewer ex-tropical storms and ex-hurricanes shifting above Eurasia.

MJO should be in the wet phase from 10. September to minimally early October 2021 above SE Asia, which should mean the next severe storms in the region.

We can look at the main patterns, expected in Asia in Autumn 2021:

  • A combination of La nina, wet MJO and favorable phase IOD will significantly contribute into stormy and floody Autumn 2021 in Southeastern Asia and in September and October in Southern Asia, too. Only continental, northern parts of SE Asia and parts of India in November should be finally drier.
  • Mostly stormy conditions in Eastern Asia – in parts of China, Korea and Japan are forecasted. NE China should be in September colder, Tibet will be mostly dry all autumn.
  • Hot and dry Middle East is forecasted. Caucasian region and Yemen should be stormy and eastern and southern Black Sea region colder.
  • Western Siberia such as parts of Eastern Europe, and Central Asia should see in late Autumn 2021 severe frosts.
  • Central Asia should be warmer and drier, with early-season heatwaves and late-season frosts.
  • Eastern and parts of Central Siberia should be warmer than average, but soon with severe frosts. It should be caused by increased cyclonic activity above the region (more precipitation), therefore, significant snowfalls are possible.
  • Sri Lanka, the southernmost edge of India and Maldives should be hot and dry.
  • Mongolia should be drier, with outbreaks of severe frosts.

At all, thanks to La Nina and favorable MJO and IOD phases, strong monsoon activity is expected in Southern, Southeastern, and Eastern Asia. The Middle East will be hot and warm, but the Black sea coast in Turkey and the Caucasian region should be cold and stormy. Central Asia should be hot first, but later should surprise late-season frosts. Severe late-season frosts are possible for Western Siberia and Eastern Europe, too. Tibet will be dry and Sri Lanka, southernmost India, and the Maldives hot and dry. In Mongolia, frosts should surprise, but Eastern and Central Siberia should have more cyclones, with heavy rainfall and snowfall.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2021-enso-update-rockin%E2%80%99-out-neutral
Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North%20Hemisphere&base_time=202108230000&parameter=geopotential%20500%20hPa

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_density_anomaly?base_time=202108010000
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_teleconnection?base_time=202108010000&index_type=NAE
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202108010000&index_type=India

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202108010000&index_type=Southeast%20Asia
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202108010000&index_type=China
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202108010000&index_type=Japan%20Korea
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202108010000&index_type=Middle%20East
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202108010000&index_type=Central%20Asia
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/cfs.gif
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes_stamps?base_time=202108230000&filter=no&parameter=velocity%20potential%20200%20hPa
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.