First two weeks of Winter 2020/21 in Europe: very cold forecast

It appears, that since this weekend, minimally until 12. December 2020 is waiting us very cold winter weather in continental Europe, with next doses of severe frosts, and lot of snow!

Next and very long, around 14-day coldwave starts already on Saturday, 28. November, when on the back side of cyclone above northeastern Europe will shift above central parts of continent extremely cold air up to -10°C in 850 hPa in Poland and Carpathians, with subsequent possible severe frosts up to -15/-20°C in the first December days in basins and valleys.

Coldwave will be in continental Europe only shortly interrupted by warmer air around 4. December 2020, but Wednesday, 25. November is an example, that extreme cold temperatures should be measured in the middle of anticyclone during temperature inversion, with T850 hPa around +10°C / (Austria on Wednesday, -14,6°C in low situated basins / valleys).

Robust part of polar vortex will shift above Europe mainly between 5.-12. December, when are forecasted the strongest frosts in Europe, below -30°C in Scandinavia and with possibility of next temperatures below -20°C in low situated basins and valleys in Central Europe or Balkan.

According to Tropicaltidbits weather tool, under the snow should cover almost the whole Central Europe (only western Germany not)! Snow calamity shoud surprise parts of Balkan and maybe Carpathians and Alps, too.

Preliminary, increasing trend of geopotential and temperature is predicted in 32-day forecasts from ECMWF for Exeter, UK, already around 20. December (25th day+), but Prague in the middle of continental Europe, expects still decreasing trend of temperature and geopotential next 32 days, until 28. December 2020! Graphs for Ankara are on theirs last part with even stronger decreasing trend of temperature and geopotential, what means, that in eastern half of Europe should be very cold a New Year (1. January 2021), too! In England, Spain, Portugal and parts of France however, it should warm up after 20. December.

Forecast for Christmas 2020 in Europe will be updated every Friday, the nearest on Friday, 27. November 2020.

Expected snow cover until 12. December 2020 in Europe /

Expected temperature in 850 hPa anomalies in Europe between 28.11. and 12.12. 2020 /

32-day forecast for Exeter (UK), Prague (Czechia) and Ankara (Turkey) with emphasis into shift of part of polar vortex above Europe eastward /ECMWF:

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.