Forecast for World: Winter 2020/21 and Summer 2021 according to ENSO predictions (Strong La-nina winter, neutral summer)




NOAA has published ENSO forecast for next 9 months and we should look at the curve and at possible weather patterns across the world during the winter 2020/2021 and summer 2021.

A peak of strong La-nina, with Nino3.4 SST index around -2 is expected approximately in the middle of incoming winter 2020/2021 with widespread impacts to climate on the Earth.

Mainly, strong Asian monsoon and cold conditions in monsoon Asia are expected.

In North America, coldwaves will bother region from Alaska trough western Canada to northern USA. Dry and warm winter is expected in southern USA and Mexico.

Stronger cyclone season and colder summer in southeastern Australia is forecasted too during the winter 2020/2021.

In Southern America, dry summer with possible wildfires is expected in La Plata region and colder summer in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paolo region is expected.

In southern Africa, colder and drier summer is forecasted, but in tropical forecast of Kongo and subequatorial southern Africa, wet conditions and risk of floods is possible.

Until the summer 2021, transition from La-nina to neutral phase ENSO is expected. It will be linked with reduction of upper mentioned weather patterns in early spring and more neutral contitions during next summer in many regions, without typical El-nino extremes.

However, in the second half of summer 2021, El-nino will be already possible, with impacts such as drought in India and Australia, too in monsoon Asia, warm conditions in many parts of South America, dry conditions in southern Caribbean, or wet stormy summer in southeastern USA.

Typhoon and hurricane season in 2021 should be weaker than current thanks to incoming El-nino, but on the other hand, strong heatwaves should appear in many parts of moderate climate zone in the second half of summer season 2021.

Predictions of ENSO from NOAA to November 2020 – July/August 2021. Source: https://www.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/photos/a.320911231336922/3617278085033537/
Effect El-nino (opposite such as La-nina) on global climate – UP NOVEMBER-MARCH, DOWN APRIL-OCTOBER. Source: FAO, 2014. Understanding the drought impact of El Niño on the global agricultural areas: An assessment using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome 2014 < http://www.fao.org/3/ai4251e.pdf>
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.