Long-term forecast until the 1st of March! Early spring after 7. February, northern half of Europe with longer winter

MK January 16, 2021 3 min read

The newest ECMWF forecast for next 42 days – until 1. March 2021 is in the world, and we should analyze, until which date should stay winter conditions in parts of Europe (or Northern Hemisphere) and when should come early spring weather.

In last 2 big long-term outlooks it appeared firstly, that early spring should come already at the start of February 2021 /https://mkweather.com/2020/12/29/in-2021-spring-come-earlier//, but after anomalous SSW, possible NAO- and blocking conditions were prolonged until 15. February 2021 /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/siberian-winter-until-the-half-of-february-early-spring-conditions-are-shifting//.

The newest outputs expect something in the middle of these scenarios, with NAO- conditions until 7. February, then the first early spring temperatures near NAO+, and before the end of the Winter 2020/2021, with a short possibility of return of winter conditions in Europe.

However, situation should be more complicated, becasue in southeastern, southern and central Europe, early spring weather should arrive sooner, while in British Islands, Scandinavia, Baltic countries and northeastern Europe, extreme frosts should hole until the half of February 2021, minimally, with possible returning of severe Siberian blasts.

In Northern America, powerful winter blasts are expected gradually mainly in Alaska and western and central Canada. Cold blasts should hit parts of Northwest, Northern Plains and Midwest, too for a time.

Mainly in southern Asia, spring should come very early, with possible heatwaves already from the end of January, extreme cold air from Siberia will gradually shift back above the Artcic.

Interesting should be strong negative air pressure anomalies above mid-latitudes in Europe during upcoming weeks, what should bring next heavy snowfall in many areas, instead of severe Siberian frosts and widespread floods in warmer regions.

Expected temperature / air pressure / precipitation anomalies over the world during next 6 weeks (form Monday to Sunday) – 18.1.-1.3.2021 /ECMWF:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/16/helsinki-61-cm-of-snow-n-e-finland-up-to-40celsius-extreme-snow-frosts/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/16/france-under-the-snow-orange-warnings-and-216celsius-frosts-snow/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/16/heart-attack-influenza-cancer-frostbites-hypothermia-covid-what-you-should-to-know-about-arctic-and-siberian-coldwaves/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/16/samedan-switzerland-272celsius-siberian-air-is-back/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/16/slutsk-belarus-268celsius-and-temperature-is-still-decreasing/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/15/deadly-snowstorm-in-japan-13-dead-250-injuried-all-time-snow-records-in-many-stations-overcame/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/15/extreme-winter-hit-southern-saudi-arabia-20celsius-and-snow-the-coldest-times-since-1971/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/15/germany-after-snowstorm-with-lighting-25c-possible/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/15/25-degrees-celsius-in-greece-a-big-temperature-shock-already-at-the-weekend-extreme-frosts/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/15/30c-in-a-few-hours-estonia-latvia-lithuania-belarus-it-will-be-very-long-night-its-only-shortly-after-sunset-1800-and-temperatures-have-dropped-to-22c/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/15/siberian-high-above-central-europe-30degreescelsius-on-monday/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/14/no-this-arent-minumum-but-maximum-temperatures-on-sunday-siberian-blast-hits-poland-with-full-power/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/14/srinagar-kashmir-capital-with-the-lowest-temperature-since-1991-87c/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/14/big-extreme-frosts-summary-temperature-records-from-europe-and-northern-hemisphere-during-the-first-half-of-the-peak-of-winter-2020-21/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/14/sweden-with-the-worst-blizzard-for-10-years-scandinavia-again-with-40c-frosts/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/14/siberia-with-568celsius-ekyuchchyu-avalanche-in-norilsk-ski-resort-killed-3/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/13/the-usa-canada-mega-coldwave-from-florida-to-alaska-a-peak-of-the-winter-between-23-28-january-2021-extreme-coldwave-mega/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/13/british-islands-and-benelux-with-strong-siberian-blast-20celsius-the-second-peak-should-surprise/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/13/snow-calamity-in-parts-of-europe-still-very-possible-the-worst-it-will-be-in-these-regions-blizzard/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/13/the-most-extreme-outputs-minimum-35celsius-and-maximum-20celsius-in-central-europe/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/13/the-weather-went-completely-crazy-black-sea-coast-with-tropical-316celsius/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/13/vietnam-13celsius-and-snow-a-new-all-time-national-record-shanghai-china-and-srinagar-india-78c-the-lowest-temperature-since-2005-2012/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/siberian-winter-until-the-half-of-february-early-spring-conditions-are-shifting/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/european-coldwave-is-owerwriting-history-next-2-weekends-will-be-critical/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/30c-frosts-bother-lower-situated-parts-of-the-spain/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/calamity-low-in-europe-right-now-sweden-with-red-warnings-poland-with-50-cm-outlook/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/lienz-austria-235c-the-lowest-temperature-since-1987-switzerland-with-corrected-280celsius/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/arctic-days-tmax-below-10celsius-hit-europe-already-this-week-rare-in-central-europe/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/dolina-di-campoluzzo-italy-siberian-396celsius/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/switzerland-264celsius-czechia-26c-austria-234c-in-valleys-around-1000-masl-but-the-worst-only-will-come/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/weather-in-europe-has-crashed-tropical-day-in-italy-302c-the-hottest-january-day-ever/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/second-peak-of-winter-2020-21-will-be-even-stronger/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/switzerland-264celsius-czechia-26c-austria-234c-in-valleys-around-1000-masl-but-the-worst-only-will-come/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/weather-in-europe-has-crashed-tropical-day-in-italy-302c-the-hottest-january-day-ever/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/10/uncompromising-siberian-winter-from-france-to-ukraine-30-celsius-watch-in-continental-europe-already-at-the-weekend-extreme/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/10/the-uk-and-ireland-siberian-winter-will-come-back-last-nights-regionally-coldest-since-legendary-2010/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/10/oymyakon-again-below-critical-55c-if-will-be-colder-than-575c-its-the-coldest-since-2002/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/10/everest-base-camp-5315-masl-extreme-04celsius-warmer-than-tropical-deserts/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/10/united-arab-emirates-with-all-time-temperature-record-abu-dhabi-20celsius/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/09/madrid-50cm-of-snow-aemet-confirmed-the-worst-snowfall-since-1971/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/09/korea-and-japan-with-the-strongest-winter-since-1986-soeul-186c-north-korea-346c-japan-the-worst-snowstorm-for-35-years/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/08/aggressive-gfs-outputs-are-back-all-siberian-air-will-shift-above-europe-2021/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/09/snow-calamity-in-large-parts-of-germany-poland-alps-carpathians-dinar-mountains-eastern-europe-scandinavia-forecast/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/08/2-weeks-of-permanent-siberian-frosts-20-30celsius-for-central-europe/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/07/trending-3-incredible-photos-from-siberia-during-extreme-peak-of-winter-20202021/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/07/extreme-winter-in-the-uk-in-rivers-occurred-very-rare-unusual-ice-pancakes/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/07/all-time-record-in-kugaaruk-canada-47c-52-6f-list-of-days-with-t850-hpa-anomaly-below-12c-in-the-usa/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/07/china-reports-50-year-frosts-beijing-city-196c-the-lowest-temperature-since-1966/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/07/siberian-winter-in-the-spain-341c-new-national-temperature-record/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/07/scandalous-gfs-outputs-which-should-overwrite-history-one-of-the-coldest-days-for-last-100-years/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/03/siberian-winter-in-europe-aggressive-gfs-outputs-expect-historic-frosts-some-regions-should-be-buried-under-the-snow/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/02/extreme-blizzard-in-severo-kurilsk-russia/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/02/extreme-winter-already-in-japan-326c/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/01/the-most-broken-circulation-on-earth-in-history-aleutian-low-921-hpa-equal-to-a-category-5-hurricane-deepest-within-all-time-records/

https://mkweather.com/2021/01/01/10943-hpa-mongolia-with-the-highest-measured-air-pressure-on-earth-in-history/

https://mkweather.com/2020/12/29/siberian-blocking-extreme-cold-air-in-norway-433c-finland-411c-only-week-after-all-time-december-scandinavian-record-18c/

https://mkweather.com/2020/12/28/oymyakon-lowest-temperature-since-2002-572c-in-monstrous-pressure-high-1076-hpa/