Bureau of Meteorology, Accuweather teams and other forecasters based on long-term meteorological models published a forecasts for cyclone season 2020/2021 in Australia.
Main drivers of the seasonal forecasts were a behaviour of ENSO (ongoing La-nina phase) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole pattern).
Thanks to La-niňa, wet conditions will be present in large parts of Asia and Australia during the rest of Asian monsoon season and Australian cyclone season.
New runs of climate models are showing up, that up to 15 tropical cyclones could develop across Australia between November and April with possible six to form in the eastern sector.
Forecasting of Australian cyclones is a subject of e.g. The Long Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Australia model, based on research, has been developed by University of Newcastle (Dr. Magee and Prof. Kiem).
It is very possible, that normal to above normal tropical cyclone activity will bother Australia with 9 – 15 cyclones during the cyclone season 2020/2021.
“On average Australia sees 9 to 11 tropical cyclones each year, with 4 crossing the eastern coast, with La Nina this year is expected more tropical cyclones than average, and the first one may arrive earlier than normal.” /https://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/story/6965100/active-cyclone-season-forecast-for-north-queensland//
The La Nina was declared on September 29 and pattern will have peak around mid-winter 2020/21.
“Probable range of between 9 and 15 tropical cyclones and that’s a little bit higher than average which is 10 tropical cyclones,” according to northqueenslandregister.com.au.
Effects of La-nina to global climate /FAO:
Forecasted cyclone season 2020/2021 in Australia /Bureau of Meteorology:
Accuweather summary /accuweather.com:
