Summer 2020/2021 forecast for Australia, New Zealand and Oceania

After Winter 2020/2021 forecasts for Europe, USA and Canada /https://mkweather.com/2020/11/24/winter-forecast-2020-2021-final-outlook/; https://mkweather.com/2020/11/29/winter-forecast-for-usa-from-noaa//; Asia /https://mkweather.com/2020/12/01/winter-2020-2021-forecast-for-asia//, Summer (Winter) 2020/2021 forecast for South and Central America /https://mkweather.com/2020/12/02/summer-winter-2020-2021-forecast-for-south-and-central-america//, ENSO Winter 2020/2021 and Summer 2021 forecast /https://mkweather.com/2020/11/14/forecast-for-world-winter-2020-21-and-summer-2021-according-to-enso-predictions-strong-la-nina-winter-neutral-summer//, Cyclone season forecast for Australia /https://mkweather.com/2020/10/12/powerful-cyclone-season-in-australia-is-expected-9-15-cyclones-is-forecasted// and First Christmas 2020 forecasts /https://mkweather.com/2020/11/28/must-see-white-christmas-2020-forecast-for-europe//, Mkweather will publish Summer 2020/2021 forecasts for Australia, New Zealand and Oceania.

Similarly such in South and Central America, main driver for circulation in Australia and Oceania will be La nina. Expect for La nina it will be AAO, yet, with expected strong positive phase in December, but too during Summer 2020/2021 (Antarctic high is anomalously strong last period) and MJO (with strengthening a cyclonic activity in northern Australia minimally until 10. January 2020, but Cyclone season 2020/2021 above average is forecasted).

Patterns will be relatively simple, with stormy and colder eastern and northern Australia and possibility of extreme heatwaves, drought and wildfires mainly in Southern and Western Australia.

New Zealand will be hot and in the north of Northern Island too humid, such as region around New Caledonia, Vanuatu and Fiji.

Equatorial parts of Oceania and French Polynesia will be thanks to La nina cold and dry, while in the north will be next hot and humid region.

Very dry and hot conditions are expected in Papua - New Guinea.

Islands is Southern Ocean should be colder and dry.

Mkweather Summer 2020/2021 forecast for Australia, New Zealand and Oceania :

ECMWF temperature, precipitation and geopotential (pressure) forecast for Winter / Summer 2020/2021:

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ENSO forecast for next 9 months from NOAA:

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Effect El-nino (opposite such as La-nina) on global climate - UP NOVEMBER-MARCH, DOWN APRIL-OCTOBER. Source: FAO, 2014. Understanding the drought impact of El Niño on the global agricultural areas: An assessment using FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome 2014 < http://www.fao.org/3/ai4251e.pdf>

MJO 40-day forecast until 10. January 2021 from NOAA:

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Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) forecast for December 2020 from NOAA:

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Accuweather Australian Basin Cyclone Forecast for 2020/2021 Cyclone season:

Source: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweathers-2020-2021-australia-summer-forecast/845123

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