A big return of Siberian winter between 5.-10. March 2021? Such we announced longer time ago, variants with extremely cold start of Spring 2021 in Europe is still possible, although, extreme Siberian winter is not a result of all runs of forecast models.
Last main run of GFS from 23. February 2021, 00Z however, was extremely cold, with -20°C in 850 hPa above Central Europe, again, and powerful frosts, in basins and valleys in continental Europe below -25°C, rarely -30°C!
Although, main runs from 06Z and 12Z are significantly warmer, ensemble forecasts still expect long-term coldwave between 27.2. – 12.3., with colder weekend 27.-28. February and colder start of March, then shorter warmer period, but between 5.-10. March with possibility of return Siberian winter.
We should notice, that main run from 12Z is almost the warmest from all runs of series, while lot of runs are 5-15°C colder. Therefore, we should expect, that during next days, extreme Siberian winter for March 2021 will return into GFS outputs, yet.
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