A big Siberian winter forecast for Europe: Which country will have excellent conditions (relative humidity) and when




Only in the last series of articles we have investigated effects of extreme low humidity and high snow cover into extreme low temperatures within a current Siberian blast in Europe /e.g. https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/1048-hpa-pressure-high-above-central-europe-at-the-weekend-then-extremely-dry-siberian-air-and/; https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/updated-estimates-of-expected-national-minimum-temperatures-ine-europe-during-ongoing-siberian-wave-2021-mk//.

Now, we should look at predicted conditions for the next 7 days in European countries in relation with extreme (or very low or only low) relative humidity in European countries, which will be a main predictor of extreme frosts in regions with heavy snowfall during this weekend and the next workweek.

As we should see in maps below and in the summarizing table above, extremely dry Siberian air will shift above Europe from the west to the east, with gradual extreme Siberian blasts in many European countries.

We chose countries with the TOP possible conditions for extreme low temepratures and extract from the maps only these days, during which will be over countries extremely cold and dry Siberian air (T850 hPa and GFS map outputs are therefore only secondary predictors of extreme frosts).

As we should notice on the main output, in western Europe (the UK, Benelux, France), excellent conditions for severe frosts will end already on Sunday or Monday, 14.-15. February 2021, while in Central Europe it will be oscillating from Monday (Germany, Switzerland) into Friday (Poland, Hungary).

In Baltic states, Eastern Europe and Romania, the best conditions for severe frosts will be mainly during the next workweek, in Balkan around Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mkweather is every day bringing summaries of reached extreme temperature across Europe (and too in the USA and Canada) during ongoing extreme coldwaves, therefore already on Saturday, which should be overall the coldest day in continental Europe in this winter, we will bring the next fresh news.

Important factors for declining of temperatures are mainly extremely low relative humidity and high snow cover /https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/1048-hpa-pressure-high-above-central-europe-at-the-weekend-then-extremely-dry-siberian-air-and/https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/updated-estimates-of-expected-national-minimum-temperatures-ine-europe-during-ongoing-siberian-wave-2021-mk// and important circulation factors are mainly peaking La nina /https://mkweather.com/2021/02/05/the-coldest-earth-for-7-years-strong-impact-of-la-nina-is-here// and extreme strong negative phase of Arctic Oscillation /https://mkweather.com/2021/02/06/ao-index-7-this-looks-like-historic-cicrulation-conditions-next-week//.

Expected low relative humidity in cold Siberian air mass during the next 7 days in chosen European countries

*Possibility of extreme, record or historic frosts

Predicted relative humidity in Europe during the next 7 days /weatheronline.co.uk

Read more:

https://mkweather.com/2021/02/13/the-usa-record-temperatures-50f-47c-coast-to-coast-snowstorm-affect-190-millions-of-people/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/13/canada-set-to-the-most-widespread-cold-of-the-century/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/12/funtensee-germany-43c-at-the-weekend-populated-regions-below-30c/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/12/poland-254c-in-kasprowy-wierch-saturday-close-to-30c-next-week-33c-possible/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/12/czechia-302c-forecast-for-the-weekend-35c/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/13/zabarban-hungary-243c/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/13/dobersberg-austria-220c-next-mornings-30c-possible/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/12/slovakia-lowlands-245c-mountains-290c-realfeel-in-carpathians-50c-saturday-morning-with-30c-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/12/cold-winter-in-france-continues-162c-3rd-level-of-warnings-before-snow/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/12/england-153c-a-new-february-all-time-record-thames-frozen-first-time-since-1963/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/updated-estimates-of-expected-national-minimum-temperatures-ine-europe-during-ongoing-siberian-wave-2021-mk/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/1048-hpa-pressure-high-above-central-europe-at-the-weekend-then-extremely-dry-siberian-air-and/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/the-uk-230c-the-coldest-night-since-1995-regionally-since-1940/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/buhl-lorraine-northern-france-163celsius/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/11/we-dont-know-when-will-be-the-end-15-days-with-extreme-siberian-frosts-before-us-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/10/2-massive-snowstorms-hit-the-usa-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/10/deadliest-week-for-avalanches-in-the-us-in-more-than-100-years-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/10/edmonton-canada-438c-only-01c-from-all-time-record-from-1994/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/10/the-uk-even-colder-altnaharra-171c-for-the-next-night-20c-forecasted/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/10/germany-267c-siberian-winter-minimally-until-20-february-2021-mk/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/10/czechia-272c-next-mornings-35c-possible/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/09/neverending-winter-siberian-blasts-until-late-march-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/09/germany-30c-forecasted-2021-siberian-winter/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/09/the-uk-167c-the-lowest-temperature-since-2010/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/09/hupsel-gelderland-the-netherlands-162c-the-coldest-times-since-2012-mk-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/09/austria-switzerland-and-czechia-35c-slovakia-poland-germany-and-france-30c-the-netherlands-and-belgium-25c-england-15c-the-coldest-estimates-for-this-week/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/07/40c-in-central-europe-after-100-years-shocking-outputs-gfs-are-brutally-cold/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/08/northern-canada-519c-southern-canada-489c-the-usa-400c-new-all-time-temperature-records/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/08/canary-islands-10-12c-at-sea-level-heavy-snowstorms-in-the-mountains-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/07/rozanymstok-poland-already-261c-but-outputs-12c-warmer-than-expected-100-year-winter-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/08/shimla-india-66-cm-26-inches-of-snow-the-highest-snow-depth-in-30-years-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/07/canada-50c-usa-35c-58-31f-snow-should-appear-in-florida/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/06/gfs-is-confirming-a-100-year-winter-temperatures-up-to-37c-are-real/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/06/ecmwf-100-year-winter-38c-and-28c-in-850-hpa-over-carpathians-the-craziest-outputs-we-have-ever-seen-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/06/ao-index-7-this-looks-like-historic-cicrulation-conditions-next-week/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/07/palermo-295c-north-macedonia-236c-hungary-181c-and-austria-176c-before-a-siberian-blast/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/05/reserve-around-5c-near-gfs-outputs-real-temperatures-are-colder-than-returned-values/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/04/arctic-air-in-caribbean-union-de-reyes-cuba-46c/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/04/new-york-17-3-inches-43-cm-of-snow-6-10-the-biggest-snowstorms-after-year-2000/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/03/guam-broke-a-71-year-old-record-205c-69f-2021-mk/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/03/greenland-with-the-coldest-temperature-of-the-winter-summit-613c/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/02/deadly-cold-at-the-weekend-windchill-70f-57c-in-the-usa-and-90f-68c-in-central-canada/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/01/snowmageddon-in-new-york-city-05-meters-20-inches-expected-110-million-people-in-northeast-in-blizzard-watch/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/02/odesa-ukraine-under-the-snow/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/01/zamoscie-210c-lublin-ground-frosts-260c-and-bialystok-43-cm-of-snow-2nd-peak-in-poland/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/01/jizerka-czechia-278c-the-second-peak-surprised/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/01/slovakia-226c-24-degree-warmer-than-the-first-peak/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/01/china-with-the-lowest-temperatures-for-41-years-1980-tulihe-463c/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/31/bermuda-with-the-lowest-january-temperature-since-2006-95c/
https://mkweather.com/2021/02/01/a-vortex-of-cold-air-around-the-whole-northern-hemisphere-the-worst-winter-for-years-is-coming-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/30/california-damaging-mudslides-27-meters-of-snow-per-a-week/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/30/40-evacuated-after-landslide-in-rota-greca-italy/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/29/kraderica-slovenia-510-cm-of-snow-the-highest-amount-in-january-in-all-time-history/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/29/shetland-83c-the-lowest-temperature-since-2010/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/29/spain-almost-tropical-30c-saguto-297c-alicante-292c-the-highest-january-temperatures-ever/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/27/snow-in-syria-refugees-in-a-big-crisis/
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https://mkweather.com/2021/01/24/frozen-animals-mongolia-480c-and-kazakhstan-404c-with-one-of-the-most-extreme-winters-on-record/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/21/siberia-the-strongest-frosts-since-1996-up-to-584celsius/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/21/big-agricultural-forecast-for-the-world-2021-weather-patterns-nao-signals-and-enso-signals-mk-2021/
https://mkweather.com/2021/01/19/surprising-night-in-poland-biebrzy-297c/

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.