In Australia, the next colder and humid season is thanks to La nina and wet MJO expected.
Cyclone season will continue in its above average trend and continental heatwaves and wildfires, similar such as during Summer 2020/2021, will have weaker intensity.
In New Zealand, tropical threats are still possible in northwest, but warm and dry autumn is expected in the south and warm overall over both islands.
Papua – New Guinea will be hot, Somlomon Islands region hot and dry. French Polynesia is expected to be cold and dry.
Fiji, New Caledonia and Vanuatu expect next tropical cyclones during Autumn 2021, with warm and humid La nina / wet MJO circulation pattern.
Tropical activity will be gradually, mainly in equatorial regions reduced, while in southern regions it should remain higher longer, although, already in Winter 2021 is expected neutral phase of ENSO.
Weaker ENSO in Winter 2021 should mean for Australia weakening of cold and humid circulation patterns and the next seasons should be in El nino warmer and drier.