Main conclusions from Asia´s autumn forecast from Accuweather:
- Weak La Niña conditions will contribute to warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures over the western part of the Pacific basin, therefore an uptick in storms and tropical activity will occur. /see also https://mkweather.com/2020/09/06/main-notes-from-cfsv2-forecast-for-autumn-and-winter-2020-21-in-the-world//
- Next typhoons are expected from the Philippines to Taiwan, eastern China, the Korean Peninsula and Japan. At Naha, Japan, located on the island of Okinawa, 51.28 inches (1,303 millimeters) of rain fell from June 1 through Aug. 31, which is more than three times that of average. Meanwhile, Seoul, South Korea, had more than double its normal summer rainfall with 43 inches (1,092 millimeters). Accuweather is expecting a total of 25 tropical storms, with 16 typhoons.
- The ongoing tropical threats coupled with non-tropical rains will keep the flooding risk from eastern China to the Korean Peninsula and Japan.
- Heavy rains in southern China have eased up, but the region remains saturated and river levels remain high from rainfall this summer. Drier conditions forecast in November can help to ease the flooding.
- Substantial rain across Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Malaysia this autumn linked with La-niňa.
- Flooding concern from tropical systems and the torrential rain from Vietnam to Thailand.
- Late-season drying forecast on the Korean Peninsula. China early in the autumn is forecast to be followed by drier conditions as the East Asia monsoon begins its seasonal withdrawal.
- The Southwest (India) monsoon to begin its withdrawal through South Asia slower than average this season (not until the 13. September). The Northeast monsoon onset in southern India may be delayed until late October. Rainfall to parts of eastern and southern India as dry air invades the main Asia continent. Far southern Tamil Nadu and Kerala, India, and Sri Lanka could be drier due partially to the late onset of the monsoon. More storms over the Bay of Bengal, but the Arabian Sea will be quite active this season, too.
- Systems in the Arabian Sea could impact western India, but the favored areas for impacts look to be toward the southern Arabian Peninsula. Drier weather is forecast to return to the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula during November.
- Much of the rest of the Middle East will be drier and warmer than average for the autumn as a whole, but stormy and wetter conditions is forecast across Turkey or northern Iraq and Iran late in the season.
- Late-season cold shots are forecast to spread southward from Siberia and into Mongolia and northeastern China. Cold air is also forecast to settle into portions of Kazakhstan later in the autumn.
Graphical Asia Accuweather forecast for Autumn 2020:
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