Night runs of ECMWF from 6. February 2021 were for Central Europe unbelievable crazy!
Main run namely expect for Carpathians conditions, which are not seen every decade - with temperature in 850 hPa only -28°C!
In modern age of computers, record of T850 hPa for Carpathians is only -23°C, therefore it should be 5°C colder conditions such as during the coldest waves for last 30 years!
Its night run (less reliable than daily outputs), however, frosts very rarely up to -38°C shouldn´t be in abnormally cold air masses such these any surprise.
Preliminary, it is needed to wait 30-degree frosts, but if forecast models stay crazy until early next week, we should really start to think about historic frosts, maybe the strongest since legendary February 1929.
In -28°C in 850 hPa, any problem with 100-year frost will be here, however, it is extremely probable, that next outputs will be milder.
It appears, that 30-degree frosts hit already around the next weekend - Valentine 2021 (14.2.) therefore should be extremely icy, if not glacial.
During all next week, we will update forecasts, news and mainly warnings before possible historic frosts - firstly it appeared, that they hit only northern parts of continental Europe, but now, large parts of continent appear to be bothered by unbelievable cold conditions, with the strongest temperature anomalies above Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania and Czechia.