Update of NAO forecast is very favorable for early-spring conditions between long time period between 10. February – 20. March 2022, with many winter or early spring warm spells, in the warmest regions of Europe maybe even heatwaves.
The first from the next expected extremely warm periods is predicted already between 16.-19. February 2022 /https://mkweather.com/europe-hits-a-winter-heatwave-temperatures-already-next-week-in-the-mediterranean-up-to-30c-in-balkan-27c-in-continental-europe-22c-and-in-british-islands-20c// and short and strong cold blasts such as at the weekend 12.-13. February aren´t already expected /https://mkweather.com/frosts-are-back-amburnex-combe-switzerland-248c-rokytska-slat-czechia-180c//.
NAO+ will be the leading regime (according to current data) minimally until 17. March 2022, which is from 10. February 2022 35 from 36 days on the graphs with NAO+.
March 2022 is among the next 6 months within the CFS forecast therefore with the warmest temperature anomalies in Europe until August 2022 /https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html/.
Méoreover, severe drought is confirming (the Mediterranean, continental Europe), while northern Europe will be affected by powerful Icelandic cyclones with severe storms or winds.
Late-season frosts will be possible near the arrival of the blocking pattern the earliest after 22. March 2022, but maybe only around 5. April 2022 /https://mkweather.com/will-bring-early-april-2022-extreme-frosts-in-europe-and-damage-to-harvest-there-are-the-first-signals//.
On 6-month NAO forecast until August 2022, in April is evident a significant decline of NAO index on outputs, so far, which should mean late-season frosts or snowfall in European mid-latitudes during the strongest cold Arctic blasts, which should be a threat mainly for gardens and in agriculture.
Sunny and extremely warm weather in the following minimally 5 weeks you should use for outdoor activities, in the mountains, however, be careful before avalanches.
Already in the next article, we will check up the NAO+ forecast on ECMWF 6-week outlook for Europe almost until the end of March 2022 (and then we will look at the ECMWF outlook for the USA).
Illustration maps / graps. Sources below.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
