Already in Mkweather Spring 2022 forecast for Europe, we predicted NAO+ March and late Arctic blasts in April 2022 (and then severe storms in May 2022): https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm/.
Very strong NAO+ for February and March 2022 is still confirming /https://mkweather.com/43-as-an-estimated-ratio-of-days-with-leading-nao-versus-blocking-pattern-until-20-march-2022-in-europe/; https://mkweather.com/early-spring-is-coming-nao-with-blocking-admixtures-will-bring-very-warm-february-and-march-2022-in-europe/; https://mkweather.com/ecmwf-6-week-forecast-for-europe-temperatures-up-to-22c-in-mid-latitudes-and-28c-in-the-mediterranean-in-february-and-25c-30c-in-march/// and there is a question when a polar vortex will be again destabilized (with an expected NAO- / AO- effect).
According to /https://www.facebook.com/LRWFS/photos/gm.1314026752408031/918020182221462//: “The composite of 86 cases of strong vortex suggests that around 19. February 2022 we will be at the lag for 20 days, i.e. reversal from + AO occurs on days 60-65, so let’s calculate approximately 45 days from 19. February 2022, when it will be necessary to protect against spring frosts. This is very bad news for gardeners – heat from the second half of February and early spring, only to haunt the accumulated Arctic mass after its final disintegration.”
Such is evident from a statement above, after very warm February 2022 and extremely warm March 2022 with strong NAO+, the next colder, NAO- phases should appear, approximately already around 5. April 2022, which should mean dangerous early frosts for many agricultural commodities and gardens.
Our Spring 2022 forecast for Europe (link above) is therefore beginning to be supported by the next materials, but which is worse, a harvest of many crops and fruit trees should be in 2022 again damaged, especially after early blooming in almost summer weather possible during March 2022.
We don´t know to tell, which regions will be hit the most, but it’s possible, that from British Islands and the Baltic region to the Mediterranean, regionally should appear severe harvest losses due to extreme frosts and even, late snowfall should after a long early-spring period appear.
A current 6-week ECMWF forecast is available until 21. March 2022 (and will be updated already in the next Mkweather article), therefore, already around 20. February 2022 we will see at the beginning of April 2022 in ECMWF 42-day outputs.
Preliminary, will be prepared, that the last words of winter will be said in April 2022, yet.