Late Indian summer with short breaks of rain in Europe during the first half of November 2020?

Indian summer will be during last days of October in Europe ended by cold front, linked with ex-hurricane Epsilon /https://mkweather.com/2020/10/26/epsilon-after-alpha-already-the-second-tropical-storm-which-hits-europe-in-2020//, which very tight hadn´t hit British Isles in full power, but only has brought severe winds and rain during Tuesday and Wednesday, 27.-28. October 2020.

However, transition to AO+ phase, and mainly, NAO+ (positive phase of Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation) in Euro-Atlantic sector will be linked with late-Indian summer conditions minimally until 10. November, in some parts of Europe maybe until the half of the month.

It´s late autumn and NAO has behavior more such as in winter than in summer (see correlation maps below) – with northward position of Azores high above Mediterranean and central parts of Europe and expected warm to very warm conditions in northern latitudes.

Stormtrack will be shifted during next 2 weeks far to the north and pressure highs from Azores will be moving across Europe eastward.

On Monday, 2. November, maximum temperatures should reach +26°C in southern France and +23/+24°C in southwestern Germany. Temperatures above +20°C will be still possible in England, Benelux and Central Europe in early November 2020.

However, valleys, basins and occasionally unfortunately lowlands too, must count with morning frosts, ground frosts will be very often.

Anticyclonic periods will be regionally interrupted by precipitation systems during first November 2020 decade in Europe and possible change should arrive from Siberia between 10.-15. November – on the front side of major anticyclone above northern and central parts of Europe, with maximum temperatures in Poland only around +3°C and strong morning frosts, in Carpathian basins preliminary up to -10°C.

If you have despite of COVID-19 last outside works in the garden or like last warm sun rays, next 2 weeks will be good preparation before long and cold winter 2020/21.

Expected NAO+ phase in early November 2020, NAOi will reach values around +2,0! /NOAA

Correlation maps of NAO index and temperatures and precipitation in Europe /Blade, 2012:

October Indian summer: Last 3 days summary:

Country	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY
TURKEY	Adana +38,2°C	Adana +38,0°C	Osmaniye +36,3°C
CYPRUS	Nicosia +34,4°C	Akdeniz +33,9°C	Gecitkale +31,0°C
GEORGIA	Zugdidi +30,6°C	Zugdidi +30,2°C	Zugdidi +29,2°C
FRANCE	Calvi +22,7°C	Bastia +29,9°C	Le Luc +22,2°C
SPAIN	Andra +23,7°C	Torrox +23,3°C	Xátiva +28,0°C
GREECE	Kastelorizo +27,7°C	Kastelorizo +25,7°C	Kastelorizo +23,7°C
RUSSIA	Majkop +27,2°C	Tuapse +26,3°C	Tuapse +26,1°C
ALBANIA	Quiteti Stalin +23,4°C	Tirana 25,1°C	Tirana +23,9°C
PORTUGAL	Lajes Acores +24,9°C	Flores Acores +22,2°C	Beja +19,7°C
ITALY	Pescara +24,9°C	Lecce +23,4°C	Ustica +22,0°C
NORTH MACEDONIA	Gevgelija +24,1°C	Gevgelija +24,0°C	Gevgelija +23,8°C
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA	Banja Luka +23,0°C	Gradacac +23,6°C	Gradacac +24,0°C
MALTA	Gudja +23,8°C	Gudja +22,8°C	Gudja +20,7°C
SERBIA	Loznica +22,6°C	Loznica +23,8°C	Nis 19,6°C
UKRAINE	Simferopol +23,6°C	Simferopol +23,6°C	Simferopol +22,0°C
CROATIA	Sisak +21,8°C	Daruvar +23,2°C	Dubrovnik +22,1°C
BULGARIA	Kurdjali +22,0°C	Sliven +23,3°C	Sandanski +20,8°C
MONTENEGRO	Plevlja +20,4°C	Tivat +22,0°C	Bar +22,8°C
ROMANIA	Sulina +22,0°C	Caransebes +20,8°C	Tulcea +19,0°C
HUNGARY	Sarmellek +20,4°C	Baja +21,8°C	Bekescsaba +19,1°C
AUSTRIA	Andau +20,6°C
SLOVENIA	Portoroz +20,4°C
POLAND		Krakow +20,4°C
SLOVAKIA	Bratislava +19,4°C	Hurbanovo +20,1°C	Lučenec +18,5°C
MOLDOVA	Camenca +19,5°C	Tiraspol +19,4°C
LICHTENSTEIN	Vaduz +19,1°C
Country	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY
SWEDEN	Nikkaluokta -15,1°C	Nikkaluokta -18,1°C	Nikkaluokta -17,1°C
RUSSIA	Moseyevo -16,8°C	Indiga -10,0°C	Krasnyj Kut -9,6°C
NORWAY	Folldall-Fredheim -6,6°C	Dividalen -12,1°C	Cuovddatmohkki -14,3°C
FINLAND	Salla -4,3°C	Kilpisjarvi -6,9°C	Kilpisjarvi -9,6°C
GERMANY	Hohenpeissenberg -0,1°C	Oberstdorf -2,2°C	Oberstdorf -3,2°C
AUSTRIA		Saalbach -0,9°C	Rauris -2,5°C
CZECHIA			Kocelovice -1,9°C
NORTH MACEDONIA		Berovo -0,4°C	Berovo -0,6°C
POLAND			Jelenia Gora -0,6°C
UK			Cairnwell -0,2°C
GREECE		Florina -0,1°C
SWITZERLAND	Andeer 0,0°C

Country	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY
DENMARK		Borris 100 mm
ITALY	Passo del Giovi 87 mm
SWITZERLAND	Robiei 83,7 mm
AUSTRIA	Brand 64 mm
CROATIA		Zadar 53 mm
PORTUGAL		Viana de Castello 52,7 mm
Country	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY
FRANCE	Cap Corse 113 km/h	Cap Sargo 141 km/h	Boulogne 101 km/h
GERMANY		Brocken 115 km/h	Brocken 101 km/h
NORWAY	Hasvik-Sluskfjellet 108 km/h		Slatteroy Fyr 112 km/h
UK	Cairngorm 109 km/h	Cairnwell 102 km/h	Cairngorm 106 km/h
FINLAND	Kittila Laukokevo 104 km/h
SPAIN		Estaca de Bares 104 km/h

Expected maximum temperatures in central parts of Europe during next 16 days /wetterzetnrale.de:

Excepted precipitation in Europe during next 16 days /wetterzentrale.de:

Expected T850 hPa anomaly from long-term average during next 16 days in Europe /wetterzentrale.de: