Silence before the storm and the last summer-like weather before an extremely cold winter? The first half of November should bring Indian summer in Europe, Canada, and Siberia /forecast until 15. November/




Although the newest Winter 2021/2022 forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere from the start of October 2021 promise even colder winter times, such were forecasted /will be updated around the weekend on our homepage/, the first half of November 2021 should bring surprisingly summer-like weather patterns across mid-latitudes of Northern Hemisphere.

According to the newest ECMWF outputs, Indian summer will be still in the first half of November 2021 possibly in large parts of Canada, Europe, and Siberia.

It looks like such as AO+ / NAO+ pattern, but it should be a signal only before the next re-building of atmospheric circulation patterns across the hemisphere, which peak is forecasted around December and early January 2021/2022 /https://mkweather.com/russian-meteorologists-expect-extreme-winter-around-december-january-2021-22/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-a-peak-near-nao-already-in-december-ne-pacific-warm-blob-nao-and-early-spring-in-february-north-america-oppositely-warm-start-cold-end-of-winter//.

During the following weeks namely, an SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) is possible, with the destabilization of the polar vortex and deep AO- / NAO- / SAM- phases, with extreme coldwaves and blizzards across mid-latitudes.

These, winter forecasts, are stood partially on the next interesting pattern – Canadian Early Stratospheric Warming – this pattern is currently ongoing and predicted, and in the past, it was associated with many legendary cold Decembers in Europe.

While in November we should enjoy the last +20°C and higher temperatures in mentioned regions, in Siberia maybe lower, December promises surprises with -20°C, -25°C or even very rarely -30°C in Europe and -50 or -55°C in Canada and Siberia.

Outlook for other continents until 15. November 2021 you should look at the maps below, the last Winter 2021/2022 forecast is available in the link above.

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/?facets=%7B%22Product%20type%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Range%22%3A%5B%22Extended%20%2842%20days%29%22%5D%2C%22Parameters%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Type%22%3A%5B%5D%7D

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.