Spring 2021 forecast for Australia and Oceania under La Nina rules: cold and stormy Australia, warm New Zealand, and various patterns in Oceania




At end of August 2021, we are bringing Autumn 2021 and for Southern Hemisphere Spring 2021 forecasts for continents.

Now, we look at Spring 2021 in Australia.

Overall, re-strengthening of the La Nina pattern during the next months is expected, which should mean colder Earth and mainly with an important impact in Australia and Oceania.

QBO will be still in its easterly (colder) phase, maybe with the transition into the westerly phase around November 2021.

Typhoon season will be weaker, but cyclone season stronger than average until Winter 2021/2022.

MJO should be in the wet phase in the region again after 10. September into early October 2021.

During the last La nina year, only one month with a negative AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) phase appeared.

We can look at the main patterns, expected in Australia and Oceania in Spring 2021:

Australia and Oceania will continue in the trend of colder and stormy weather, with a stronger Cyclone season 2021/2022, higher probability of floods, and lesser probability of drought and abnormal heatwaves. Then, wildfire season should start weaker than average. Spider season and Mice plague should be strengthening. New Zealand and the Solomon Islands will be hot, Papua-New Guinea, New Caledonia, Fiji, Vanuatu hot and stormy, northern Oceania dry, and French Polynesia cold and dry. Hawaii should be hot and drier. Most of the behavior above Oceania will be directly dependent on La Nina pattern, partially MJO and IOD – mainly in western parts. ITCZ should shift more southward around October 2021 thanks to a possible negative AO and positive AAO.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2021-enso-update-rockin%E2%80%99-out-neutral
Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North%20Hemisphere&base_time=202108230000&parameter=geopotential%20500%20hPa

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_density_anomaly?base_time=202108010000
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/cfs.gif
Southeast Australia – precipitation

Southwest Australia – precipitation

Northeast Australia – precipitation

Central Tropical Pacific – precipitation

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202108010000&index_type=Central%20Tropical%20Pacific

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes_stamps?base_time=202108230000&filter=no&parameter=velocity%20potential%20200%20hPa
Aug 2021
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes?base_time=202108010000&nino_area=NINO3-4
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.