Spring / Autumn forecast for Africa: Mostly hot and dry, parts of Sahel/Equatorial Africa stormy and South Africa stormy and cold




At end of August 2021, we are bringing Autumn 2021 and for Southern Hemisphere Spring 2021 forecasts for continents.

Now, we look at Spring / Autumn 2021 in Africa.

Overall, re-strengthening of the La Nina pattern during the next months is expected, which should mean colder Earth and possible impact in Africa.

QBO will be still in its easterly (colder) phase, maybe with the transition into the westerly phase around November 2021.

NAO appears positive, later negative during Autumn 2021 in the north.

Cyclone season is forecasted to be stronger near South-African and southern Mozambique coast, but weaker in northern and eastern Madagascar and Indian Ocean islands.

Hurricane season should be weaker than was expected /https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-north-america-long-indian-summer-and-weaker-hurricane-season-such-as-expected//.

MJO should be in the wet phase until 15. September with a possible increased storm activity in equatorial and subequatorial Africa.

During the last La Nina year, only one month with a negative AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) phase appeared.

We can look at the main patterns, expected in Africa in Spring/Autumn 2021:

  • Hot and dry weather in North Africa – mainly in western Saharan and Sahel states is forecasted and in many parts will continue. From Spring 2021 is accumulated above the Saharan region extremely hot air, and heatwaves in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and the western Sahel will stay very, temporarily extremely hot. Mainly northern coast will be affected by Greenland´s – European high-pressure system around October 2021 /http://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-europe-mostly-dry-and-frosty-autumn-be-prepared-for-early-severe-frosts//, with a possibility of some frosts on the front side of the system, firstly, but gradually severe drought and a possibility of the next wildfires on the backside of the system, later. In September 2021 in the region will be continuing the hot and dry summer pattern, too.
  • Dry Egypt, Libya and Chad region – not so extremely hot such as western Sahara and Sahel.
  • Stormy and hot coast of Western Africa and southern East Sahel associated with ENSO (La Nina) – MJO – IOD configuration. Heavy rains with the next floods should surprise already in the first half of September thanks to wet MJO.
  • Hot and dry Central and South-Central parts of Africa, with a possibility of wildfires.
  • Mostly hot and dry northern and eastern Madagascar and Indian Ocean Islands.
  • Stormy and colder South Africa and neighboring states thanks to La Nina, stronger cyclone activity near South-African, Mozambique and southwestern Madagascar coast.
  • Colder and dry coast of Western Sahara.
  • Dry Cabo Verde.
  • Stormy and warm Saint Helena.

Many African regions will suffer in Spring / Autumn 2021 hot and dry weather with a possibility of wildfires and lack of water in agriculture. However, parts of Western Africa and southern East Sahel should report the next floods. In South Africa and neighboring countries should be colder and stormy, in September with late winter Antarctic blasts. Madagascar will be mostly hot and dry, only southwest stormy. The Coast of Western Sahara should be colder than the rest of Western Saharan states. Saint Helena will be stormy, Cabo Verde dry, and islands in the Indian Ocean drier than average.

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

Source: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/august-2021-enso-update-rockin%E2%80%99-out-neutral
Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_eps_family_hovmoller?area=North%20Hemisphere&base_time=202108230000&parameter=geopotential%20500%20hPa

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-regime-probabilities?forecast_from=latest
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_density_anomaly?base_time=202108010000
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/cfs.gif
Monsoon – Sahel
Monsoon – West Africa
Precipitation – East Africa
Precipitation – Guinea Coast
Precipitation – Sahel
Precipitation – South Africa
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes_stamps?base_time=202108230000&filter=no&parameter=velocity%20potential%20200%20hPa
Aug 2021
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes?base_time=202108010000&nino_area=NINO3-4

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.