The most reliable, last runs GFS from 18Z have surprised again and returned for Central Europe extreme cold outbreak at the end of January 2021.
Real temperatures should be in basins and valleys with snow cover even lower, such we were witnesses during last days /summary here: https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/european-coldwave-is-owerwriting-history-next-2-weekends-will-be-critical// – minimum temperatures in absolutely the coldest frosts basins should be cca -10°C lower than outputed values (in this case -25°C -> -35°C) and very rarely should appear superarctic day, with maximum temperature below -20°C (-17°C outputed for southern Czechia and northern Austria) if we consdider these outputs for reliable.
Until 28. January is however 2 weeks yet, although, possibility of Siberian outbreaks will be here until the half of February /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/siberian-winter-until-the-half-of-february-early-spring-conditions-are-shifting//.
Before this, the second possible peak of Siberian winter in Europe, one, approximately 5-10°C warmer, with possibility of minimum temperatures -25/-30°C and maximum temperatures below -10°C comes already around this weekend /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/arctic-days-tmax-below-10celsius-hit-europe-already-this-week-rare-in-central-europe/; https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/european-coldwave-is-owerwriting-history-next-2-weekends-will-be-critical// (outputed minimum temperatures from –15 to -20°C in outputs from last days and Arctic days below -10°C including some lowlands, regionally).
Already during next 5 days – from Thursday to Tuesday, 14.-19. January 2021, we expect a big return of temperature records, now – in more eastern regions such as during the last period (Spain, the UK, the Alps vs. Baltic region, East Central Europe, Balkan, Eastern Europe and Scandinavia).
Summary of temperature records from Europe during last days
After all time Spain temperature record (-34,1°C within AEMET stations and -35,8°C in other stations; https://mkweather.com/2021/01/07/siberian-winter-in-the-spain-341c-new-national-temperature-record/) and historic 50-year snowstorm /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/09/madrid-50cm-of-snow-aemet-confirmed-the-worst-snowfall-since-1971// was Tuesday, 12. January in lower situated parts of the Spain again extremely cold, with temperatures up to -29,9°C /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/12/30c-frosts-bother-lower-situated-parts-of-the-spain// (note: previous record is from mountainous stations).
In parts of the UK, current coldwave have produced regionally the coldest times since legandary year 2010 /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/10/the-uk-and-ireland-siberian-winter-will-come-back-last-nights-regionally-coldest-since-legendary-2010//.
Extremely cold weather from the British Islands and Spain has shifted around Monday, 11. January 2021 over the Alps, with measured -39,6°C in Dolina de Campoluzzo, Italy /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/dolina-di-campoluzzo-italy-siberian-396celsius//, 1700 MASL, -28,0°C in Le Bréviene, France and Switzerland, 1042 MASL /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/france-280c-1042-masl-and-262c-840-masl-germany-223c-810-masl-extreme//, -25,9°C in Perla, Kvilda, Czechia, -24,0°C in St. Jakob in Defereggen, Austria or -22,3°C in Oberstdorf, Germany.
In Lienz, Eastern Tyrol, Austria, was on Monday, 11. January measured the lowest temperature since 1987, -23,5°C /https://mkweather.com/2021/01/11/lienz-austria-235c-the-lowest-temperature-since-1987-switzerland-with-corrected-280celsius//.