Winter should be strong until 20. Feburary, then finally early spring?

MK January 28, 2021 3 min read

Least this conclusions we should read from ensemble forecasts for Stockholm, where will persist Siberian air masses most of the time following minimally 3 weeks.

Similar conditions are forecasted for London and Warsaw, while southern parts of Europe won´t be so luckly such as northern and western half of Europe.

According to last runs of GFS, from 27.1.2021 12Z and 18Z, frosts only -17/-22°C should surprise Alpine and Carpathian basins and valleys between Sunday-Tuesday, 31.1. – 2.2. 2021, then will come next short warm spell, but…

Already following weekend, 6.-7. Feburary should Siberian air shift over Scandinavia, Poland and Germany up to British Island, Benelux, France and Spain, with promised strong frosts.

However, Wednesday´s outputs of main run are again little warmer than previous, with -20/-25°CC probability in Alpine and Carpathian basins, maybe -20°C in northern Poland, and around -40°C in central Scandinavia, too.

Approximately 1/3 of runs however for period between 5.-20. Feburary expect for Warsaw temperature in 850 hPa slightly below -15°C, what should mean 33% probability of even stronger frosts during the period.

After 20. February it looks like early spring preliminary, although in Iberian Peninsula are expected summer days (above +25°C) already during the next period.

Forecasts will be furthermore updated and Mkweather brings every day fresh news.

T850 hPa anomalies at the weekend 6.-7. February according to latest runs of GFS /wxcharts.com, wetterzentrale.de

Ensemble forecasts for chosen cities in Europe /wetterzentrale.de

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