The forecast for the current solar cycle is saying, that it will be the weakest minimally of the last cca 100 years (since 1915). More pessimistic scenarios are saying about the weakest 25th solar cycle in 200 years – since Maunder minimum.
The maximum of this next cycle could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The cycle started in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.
What is however more disturbing is, that during 21st century is gradually by more and more models forecasted “Eddy Minimum” – a modern minimum which is often linked with speculations about Mini Ice Age.
What really happens no one knows, because in last decades we had here extremely strong global warming trend, which is only around 2021 slowed down thanks to La nina, solar cycle minimum and stronger volcanic activity.
Colder weather global pattern is forecasted to stay here minimally until 2022, then, in 2023-2025, strong El nino, with very hot Earth should appear again.
But what will happen later, after 2025? Such we have showed before, La nina, volcanic activity and solar cycle correlate quite strongly /https://mkweather.com/solar-cycle-behind-nao-coldwaves-in-europe-and-la-nina-coldwaves-around-the-world-2021/; https://mkweather.com/2021-22-little-ice-age-years-with-volcanic-activity-in-last-30-years-had-tendency-to-be-la-nina-during-solar-cycle-minimum/; https://mkweather.com/a-big-european-circulation-anomaly-in-2021-totally-oppositely-such-as-in-the-world-and-showing-what-climate-change-should-bring-until-2100/; https://mkweather.com/the-coldest-spring-2021-in-europe-since-1987// and there is a main question, if all circulation patterns, teleconnections and effects on Earth aren´t dependent on one, the most important factor, which is solar activity.
The second question is, what will be a result of a combination of weak Sun with CO2 emissions and extreme global warming trend.
Global warming should be weakened or even, cold conditions, such as during Maunder minimum is possible?
The last string of solar minimums caused the mini ice age.
The Maunder Minimum, known as the “prolonged sunspot minimum”, is period cca 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare.
The Maunder Minimum is strongly correlated with the middle part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America experienced with very cold weather.
E.g. from Denmark to Sweden in winters was possible to cross past the frozen sea, northern part of Adriatic Sea was frozen, Europe and North America were experiencing with widespread famines caused by extreme frosts, coldwaves and weak harvests, vineyards were in many parts destroyed:
1315 – 1321 great hunger
1350 the Vikings leave their western settlement in Greenland
1500 vineyards in England cease to be grown August
1588 a great storm brought destruction to a larger number of ships of the Spanish army, which thus accelerated its defeat in the clash with the English fleet
1580 – 1600 significant decline in wine production in Switzerland, Hungary and Austria
1590 – 1850 the wave of alpine glacial glaciation reached the maximum ice age in a short time
1687 – 1692 cold winters and cold summers caused crop failures
1693 – 1694 much of northern Europe and France were seized by a great famine
1696 – 1697 Finland loses a third of its population to famine
1740 At the beginning of the year, Paris suffered 75 days of severe frosts, which led to a sharp rise in food prices
1812 – severe frosts in December 1812 accelerated the defeat of Napoleon’s army during his military campaign in Russia, then temperatures dropped to −37,5°C
1841 – 1851 more than one million people die in a “great famine” in Ireland caused by a combination of changeable weather, potato disease and dependence on a single crop
Although so extreme cooldown such as in Maunder minimum is highly not probable, still are staying here unanswered questions, what is waiting us during the next decades.
According to Mkweather opinion, if the next solar cycles in 21st century will be really extremely weak, it should have some contribution on global warming slowdown – it means, milder scenarios of climate change will be adapted.
Yes, in some regions, which in this climate should become global warming holes, it should be even colder, such as in 20th and the start of 21st century. Number of these global warming hole should be larger and they should be wider such as limited GW holes in extremely warm climate above the Antarctic or northern Atlantic.