Although on Sunday, 19. December 2021 have appeared several warmer runs, expected only cold or maximally very cold conditions (75. and 90. percentile), previous runs from Saturday, 18. December 2021 and possibly the next, future GFS outputs, returned (will return) extremely cold conditions above almost all Europe (99. percentile) around the last day of the year 2021, Sylvester, 31. December.
In this article were used outputs from Saturday, 18Z, but runs from Saturday, 12Z, were even around -5°C colder!
Chances for temperatures below -25°C, or even up to -30°C for continental Europe, are therefore during winter holidays 2021-2022 still alive!
A very important factor is shown to be a snow cover, which should bring severe frosts not only in basins and valleys but too in lowlands in northern parts of Central Europe.
While western France, Spain, and Portugal should be warmer, from eastern France to Ukraine, and Scandinavia in the north and Balkan in the south, it should end with a possible peak of Winter 2021/2022 between 20. December – 10. January 2021-2022.
Winter conditions around Christmas and New Year 2021-2022 should come in several waves – between these waves, a shorter warm period should appear.
The temperature in 850 hPa should fall into interval -10/-15°C, rarely below -15°C above Central Europe.
Temperature anomalies from the long-term average should regionally reach -15/-20°C, locally lower – especially during the strong frosts on a deep snow cover.
Classic warnings before a worsening of health problems such as hypothermia, virological situation, heart attacks, such as power outages, uprooted trees ar problems in travel are expected.
Warmer weather is possible mainly after 10. January 2022, but cold blasts should be returning in eastern parts of the region //https://mkweather.com/a-long-term-forecast-for-europe-until-31-january-2022///.
An expected peak of Winter 2021/2022 around New Year was forecasted in our Winter 2021/2022 forecasts for Europe and North Hemisphere /https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-northern-hemisphere/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-extreme-arctic-and-siberian-blasts-and-blizzards-late-dry-and-very-warm-conditions//.