Winter 2021/2022 forecast for Europe: Early extreme Arctic and Siberian blasts and blizzards, late dry and very warm conditions




Winter 2021/2022 is coming and we are bringing continental updates of predicted patterns for Europe, North America, Asia, Africa (Winter + Summer 2021/2022), Australia (Summer 2021/2022), and South America (Summer 2021/2022).

In this article we will look at forecasted Winter 2021/2022 conditions in Europe.

Such as we detailed analyzed in the last Winter 2021/2022 forecast for the Northern hemisphere / https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-extreme-frosts-in-eurasia-in-december-in-north-america-in-february-early-canadian-stratospheric-warming-ne-pacific-blob-la-nina-qbo-and-shift-from-nao-to-nao-such-le/ /, 6 (+1) main teleconnection patterns will be affecting conditions during an upcoming winter:

  1. Re-strengthening La Nina pattern: La nina in 2021 brought together with other circulation patterns already the first 5 cold months (January – May 2021) in many parts of Europe, but it appears, that in Winter 2021/2022 its usual twin AO+ and NAO+ will be stronger, mainly in the second half of the winter, while during December 2021 and early January 2022 it should contribute into colder conditions not only around the Earth, but too in mid-latitudes of Northern Hemisphere.
  2. Switch from NAO- / AO- to NAO+ / AO+ during Winter 2021/2022: New outputs of geopotential from CFS are still expecting cold airflow mainly above northern half of Europe in December (or early January), strongly associated with NAO- / AO- phase. This we should notice in maps and graphs below – in northern Europe is forecasted lower amounts of precipitation, while in the Mediterranean higher, northern Europe should be very cold; European blocking circulation pattern will be anomalously strong. During January and in February 2022 we will very probably switch into a NAO+ / AO+ very dry and very warm regiome, with a shift of stormtracks into northern regions (blizzards from the Mediterranean above Scandinavia) and Azores high above large parts of Europe.
  3. Early Canadian Stratospheric Warming – Legendary December frosts not excluded: Around November, the Early Canadian Stratospheric Warming pattern is expected. This anomaly was in the past often associated with NAO- / AO- coldwaves, including legendary December frosts. It means, that frosts below -30°C are the most probable in the coldest populated valleys below 1000 MASL already in December or at the start of January 2021.
  4. NE Pacific Warm Blob Anomaly – NAO+ regime for the second half of winter?: This anomaly above Northern Pacific correlates with NAO+ conditions in Europe. Both regimes are forecasted to persist in January and this circulation should be peaking around February 2022, with very dry and very warm weather, in southern parts of Europe, with prematurely spring conditions and early the first +20°C or +25°C (summer days) of the summer season. Only Scandinavia, Iceland, northern British Islands, the Baltic region, or northern Russia should stay on stormtrack, with warmer weather, but still a possibility of blizzards.
  5. QBO in Easterly phase: The best should be if easterly QBO was here together with other favorable circulation patterns in January, where it strongly correlates with extreme winter conditions in Western Europe. Although QBO is forecasted to stay in a colder phase until the end of Winter 2021/2022, other teleconnections will have probably a stronger impact on weather in Europe and Northern Hemisphere.
  6. Dry MJO above the Atlantic, wet MJO above Southeastern Asia in November: A forecasted weaker end of hurricane season agrees with predicted Indian-summer-like conditions before the winter and NAO+ / AO+ conditions in November 2021. Calmer Atlantic means less probability of early winterstorms in Europe until the start of winter, however, circulation should change in December by a way mentioned above.
  7. Major SSW (Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming) already in the first half of Winter 2021/2022: The last, very important factor, which we didn´t describe in the last Mkweather Winter 2021/2022 forecast is, if there are chances for so-called “destabilization of polar vortex”, strongly associated with AO- / NAO- phases across Northern Hemisphere and severe cold blasts in mid-latitudes. Yes! A probability of SSW will be here just during the first half of Winter 2021/2022. Firstly, warm air from Canada should shift above the Arctic, where sometimes around December 2021, the collapse of polar vortex should become, with subsequent severe frosts mainly in European, Asian and North-African sectors.

Now, we should look at a forecasted map for Winter 2021/2022 for Europe and 5 main sectors, with similar regimes of weather:

A) SCANDINAVIA, BALTIC REGION, RUSSIA: Thanks to NAO- and AO- conditions during December 2021 and January 2022, extreme Arctic and Siberian blasts will be very probable, together with a drought. During the second half of winter, near NAO+, very warm conditions, but still enough for powerful blizzards will be persisting above the region. During extreme cold blasts during Christmas time, around -45°C frosts should surprise Scandinavian countries, while the second half of winter should be very warm, up to +18°C in southern parts.

B) CONTINENTAL EUROPE, BRITISH ISLANDS, ICELAND: In Northwestern Europe will be continental the early Arctic and Siberian blasts little calmer such as above the continent and limited duration, but still with a possibility of extreme peaks across continental Europe (and maybe shortly northern Spain and Portugal, or Balkan, too). Cold blasts will be gradually in the region alternated with blizzard conditions around January 2021 and finally, in late January and February, anomalously warm and dry weather, gradually even spring-like weather should come into the region. The first NAO- half of the winter should bring -30°C cold blasts, while in the second half, +20°C should be measured in northern and +25°C in southern mid-latitudes. ***An exception will be Iceland, with late blizzards (not warm and dry).

C) BALKAN, GREECE, ITALY, UKRAINE, TUNISIA, ALGERIAN COAST: This cluster of countries should be associated with increased activity of Mediterranean lows during the first half of Winter 2021/2022, with blizzard conditions and shortly Arctic / Siberian cold blasts, too. January and February however should be very warm, in southern parts maybe hot. Temperatures should drop up to -25°C in December 2021 (Europe, Africa warmer) and rise to +25°C, in the African coast up to +30°C in February 2022. Ukraine should be colder.

D) TURKEY AND CAUCASIAN REGION: A little cluster with cold and dry conditions is forecasted for Turkey and Caucasian countries, or southwesternmost Russia, respectively. Dry conditions during the winter should push minimum temperatures at the nights below zero, with a resulting effect of severe frosts. However, mainly in December, although models don´t see it now, should be possible some blizzards in the first half of the winter. It will be a region, with cold periods from the north such as hot periods from the south, but dry and colder/neutral patterns should be leading.

E) IBERIA, MOROCCO, SAHARA, MIDDLE EAST…: Hot and dry conditions with temporary summer days above +25°C are forecasted mainly for the southern half of Spain and Portugal. Very hot and dry should be the Middle East, Morocco, and Sahara, with a possible peak of winter in the first half, during NAO- phases, with severe frosts and Mediterranean lows in Europe. Northern Iberia, such as the Atlas region and the northern Middle East should receive during these periods some snow and frosts despite the overall hot and dry character of winter.

Before a cold December 2021 and early January 2022 period a long period of Indian summer in November 2021 in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere, is predicted /https://mkweather.com/november-should-start-with-summer-weather-record-temperatures-25c-in-continental-europe-are-possible/; http://mkweather.com/20c-in-northern-25c-in-southern-mid-latitudes-in-november-2021-untraditionally-late-indian-summer-for-northern-hemisphere-is-confirming//.

The last updates of the Winter 2021/2022 forecast we published here – and it really appears, that the upcoming winter will be probably peaking in Europe, Asia, and North Africa around December 2021 and early January 2022 and in North America around February 2022 (forecasts are still confirming): https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-extreme-frosts-in-eurasia-in-december-in-north-america-in-february-early-canadian-stratospheric-warming-ne-pacific-blob-la-nina-qbo-and-shift-from-nao-to-nao-such-le/; https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-a-peak-near-nao-already-in-december-ne-pacific-warm-blob-nao-and-early-spring-in-february-north-america-oppositely-warm-start-cold-end-of-winter/https://mkweather.com/mkweather-special-forecast-for-the-next-3-seasons-cold-autumn-2021-warmer-winter-2021-2022-cold-spring-2021-for-europe-a-peak-of-winter-in-its-colder-first-half-north-america-with-extreme-cold-2021-20/https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-the-first-reliable-estimates-extreme-cold-blasts-from-canada-and-western-siberia-snow-in-western-europe-and-eastern-asia-la-nina-qbo-to-qbo-shift-sufficient-nao-ao/ and we published ENSO outlook, too /https://mkweather.com/2022-2023-forecast-chances-for-el-nino//. It is also worth mentioning the Russian forecast for Siberia for Winter 2021/2022 (agree with our forecasts) /https://mkweather.com/russian-meteorologists-expect-extreme-winter-around-december-january-2021-22//.

Continental forecasts for Autumn (in Southern Hemisphere Spring) 2021 we published here: https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-europe-mostly-dry-and-frosty-autumn-be-prepared-for-early-severe-frosts/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-north-america-long-indian-summer-and-weaker-hurricane-season-such-as-expected/https://mkweather.com/autumn-2021-forecast-for-asia-strong-monsoon-for-s-se-e-asia-hot-and-dry-in-the-middle-east-late-siberian-cold-blasts-in-w-siberia-and-snow-calamities-in-e-siberia/https://mkweather.com/spring-autumn-forecast-for-africa-mostly-hot-and-dry-parts-of-sahel-equatorial-africa-stormy-and-south-africa-stormy-and-cold/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-australia-and-oceania-under-la-nina-rules-cold-and-stormy-australia-warm-new-zealand-and-various-patterns-in-oceania/https://mkweather.com/spring-2021-forecast-for-south-america-floods-and-drought-in-many-regions/.

Mkweather until 30. November will be updating Winter 2021/2022 forecasts for Northern Hemisphere, yet, approximately 3-5 times, therefore stay watch weather with us and be prepared for possible early attacks of the winter.

Source: https://simonleewx.com/cfsv2_monthly-anomalies/

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/?facets=%7B%22Product%20type%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Range%22%3A%5B%22Long%20%28Months%29%22%5D%2C%22Parameters%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22Type%22%3A%5B%22Forecasts%22%5D%7D

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_nino_annual_plumes?base_time=202108010000&nino_area=NINO3-4
Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Source: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/cfs.gif

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_teleconnection?base_time=202110010000&index_type=NAE

Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_tstorm_density_standard?base_time=202110010000
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_climagrams_precipitation?base_time=202110010000&index_type=Southern%20Europe
Source: https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/seasonal_system5_standard_ssto?area=GLOB&base_time=202110010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202112020000
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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.