New outputs of CFS see very similar conditions for large parts of Europe in February and March 2022 such as previous /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-will-come-in-february-nao-and-extremely-warm-early-spring-conditions-in-february-and-march-2022-are-predicted-cfs-ecmwf// and ECMWF predictions /https://mkweather.com/early-spring-in-february-2022-is-confirming-strong-nao-is-predicted//.
After a forecast peak of Winter 2021/2022 in late January 2022 and early February 2022, gradual strengthening of Azores high near British Islands is predicted, with early-spring conditions firstly in western and northern, later in central Europe.
In the SE sector – Balkan, Turkey, Eastern Mediterranean, this NAO+ episode will bring colder weather, or warming will arrive later.
It´s however a truth, that in comparison with previous outputs, extremely warm spring weather should arrive in parts of Europe around 2 weeks later, mainly in the second half of February 2022 and in March 2022.
The main sign of upcoming NAO+ is anomalously dry Mediterranean, although Eastern Mediterranean will stay in February stormy, cold, and snowy, with very good winter conditions (southern Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Libya,…).
Icelandic stormtrack will be in February 2022 situated shifted relatively southward, above Central Europe, yet, an extremely strong NAO+ pattern, with stromtrack above Scandinavia, will arrive according to our estimates only later, after 15.-20. February, and mainly in March 2022.
NAO+ brings very dry and gradually hot weather to NW Africa in both months, too.
Winter-like conditions therefore should stay in continental, Eastern Europe, Balkan, or Turkey in early February 2022, yet, with a possibility of the peaking of winter in eastern and southeastern regions.
After powerful winter, very good weather to outdoor activities lasting in large parts of Europe around 6 weeks is still in outlook.
Late-season frosts should surprise mainly around April when a weakening of NAO+ to neutral NAO or NAO- is still predicted.
Illustration map: March 2022 temperature anomalies from long-term average /CFS, link below