In the last articles focused on expected early-spring conditions in Europe and neighboring areas, we confirmed, that very warm weather is predicted in large parts of Europe already in February 2022, and in March 2022, very warm temperature anomalies should be even higher /https://mkweather.com/ecmwf-is-confirming-nao-spring-should-come-to-europe-already-in-a-few-weeks/; https://mkweather.com/6-week-ecmwf-forecast-for-europe-until-7-march-2022-early-spring-is-coming/; https://mkweather.com/early-spring-conditions-nao-in-europe-in-february-and-march-2022-is-still-confirming-mainly-for-western-northern-and-central-parts-se-sector-will-stay-cold//.
According to the newest outputs of ECMWF and CFS, early-spring conditions are still confirming, with high NAO+ probability during almost all February and March 2022 – in February especially in the period 13.-27. February, when extremely warm weather, with +20°C in mid-latitudes and around +28°C in the warmest parts of the Mediterranean should be possible.
Warm anomaly is forecast for February mainly for the northern half of Europe and continental Europe, while in March, extremely warm weather should hit almost all continent, excluding Greece, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Turkey, or Cyprus.
Colder in March 2022 should still stay in NE Africa, the Caucasian region, and the Middle East.
Dry anomaly above the Mediterranean such as the main sign of NAO+ should be spreading already in February, and in March, strong NAO+ should cause dry weather not only in the Mediterranean but in continental Europe, too. Even England or southern Sweden should be in March dry.
In continental Europe, rare summer days above +25°C, in Mediterranean tropical days above +30°C should later in March 2022 appear.
Scandinavia (or Scotland) in the outlook will become stormy and very warm (typical NAO+ pattern, too),
Blocking pattern in early March should bring preliminary some coldwaves to the eastern half of the continent – Scandinavian blocking is not effective in British Islands, Western Europe, West-Central Europe, Iberia, the Alps, or Italy, mostly.
In April 2022, late-season frosts, after a weakening of the NAO signal, will be possible
ECMWF’s 6-week forecast for Europe will be updated already in the next Mkweather article.
Illustration maps: Sources ECMWF, CFS (links below)
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2_body.html
