New outputs of ECMWF see very similar conditions for large parts of Europe in February and March 2022 such as previous outputs of CFS/ECMWF /https://mkweather.com/early-spring-conditions-nao-in-europe-in-february-and-march-2022-is-still-confirming-mainly-for-western-northern-and-central-parts-se-sector-will-stay-cold/; https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-will-come-in-february-nao-and-extremely-warm-early-spring-conditions-in-february-and-march-2022-are-predicted-cfs-ecmwf/; https://mkweather.com/early-spring-in-february-2022-is-confirming-strong-nao-is-predicted//.
After a forecast peak of Winter 2021/2022 in late January 2022 and early February 2022, gradual strengthening of Azores high near British Islands is predicted, with early-spring conditions firstly in western and northern, later in central Europe /https://mkweather.com/early-spring-conditions-nao-in-europe-in-february-and-march-2022-is-still-confirming-mainly-for-western-northern-and-central-parts-se-sector-will-stay-cold//.
In the SE sector – Balkan, Turkey, Eastern Mediterranean, this NAO+ episode will bring colder weather, or warming will arrive later, around March 2022.
The newest outputs of ECMWF count with the first, weaker, peak of NAO+ already around 1. February 2022 with warming mainly in the western and northern half of Europe.
A possible blocking pattern around 10. February 2022 should bring a shorter return of winter conditions mainly above central, eastern, and southern parts.
In the 2nd and 3rd February decade 2022, a gradual strong NAO+ is predicted, with a relatively colder period in the 2nd and peaking of extremely warm weather in the 3rd February decade.
In the second half of February 2022, it appears such as maximum temperatures up to +20°C in European mid-latitudes!
In March 2022, +25°C temperatures should surprise.
The main sign of upcoming NAO+ is anomalously dry Mediterranean, although Eastern Mediterranean will stay in February stormy, cold, and snowy, with very good winter conditions.
Northern Europe will be oppositely, very stormy (but still very warm).
Winter-like conditions therefore should stay in continental, Eastern Europe, Balkan, or Turkey in early February 2022, yet, with a possibility of the peaking of winter in eastern and southeastern regions. NAO+ brings however very dry and gradually hot weather to NW Africa in both months.
After powerful winter, very good weather to outdoor activities lasting in large parts of Europe around 6 weeks (15.2.-30.3. 2022) is still in outlook.
Late-season frosts should surprise mainly around April when a weakening of NAO+ to neutral NAO or NAO- is still predicted /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//.