After a time, we are bringing a long-term temperature forecast for Europe (+North Africa, northern Middle East, and Central Asia) from ECMWF.
Such as we should see on maps below, winter conditions for Europe should be peaking already in the next 2-3 weeks (in January 2022) /agrees with GFS: https://mkweather.com/scandinavia-in-the-next-4-days-below-40c-sweden-already-383c-and-temperature-is-decreasing/; https://mkweather.com/central-europe-expects-a-10-day-coldwave-it-will-start-in-5-days-and-brings-20c-temperatures-and-lower-almost-every-day/; https://mkweather.com/eastern-europe-25c-with-2-peaks-of-severe-winter-11-14-and-18-21-january-2022/; https://mkweather.com/the-next-peak-of-winter-for-turkey-east-with-30c-and-northern-middle-east-frosts-and-snowing-below-1000-masl-after-15-january-2022/; https://mkweather.com/12-days-of-severe-frosts-for-italy-15c-apennines-25c-alps-and-balkan-20c-carpathians-25c-dinaric-mountains/; https://mkweather.com/spain-10c-and-portugal-5c-with-a-long-term-10-day-coldwave-ahead/; https://mkweather.com/france-20c-benelux-15c-10-days-of-severe-frosts-ahead-start-already-in-5-days/; https://mkweather.com/british-islands-10-days-of-severe-frosts-ahead-start-already-in-5-days//, while warm Atlantic air should arrive to northern and western Europe in February 2022.
While in January 2022, neutral or NAO- phases will be leading, in February 2022 should very warm, early-spring conditions bring NAO+ phase (with pressure high with a center near British Islands: https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-will-come-in-february-nao-and-extremely-warm-early-spring-conditions-in-february-and-march-2022-are-predicted-cfs-ecmwf/).
Cold air, however, will be shifting in February eastward and parts of the Eastern Mediterranean, including the northern Middle East, NE Africa, Turkey, or the Caspian region, should experience very cold winter conditions in February (minimally the first half of the month), yet.
The first period should be associated with many Mediterranean lows, while in February they will shift above Eastern Mediterranean and such as Western Disturbances above the Middle East and northern India.
These conditions should persist in Europe in March 2022, while in April 2022, late-season frosts or snowfall should appear /https://mkweather.com/spring-2022-forecast-for-europe-early-dry-late-stormy-very-warm//.
For European, it appears, remains to be satisfied with an upcoming peak of Winter 2021/2022 in the next weeks.
Illustration map: 6-week temperature forecast for Europe for the period 10. January – 21. February 2022 /ECMWF (link below)
6-week temperature forecast for Europe for the period 10. January – 21. February 2022 (week after week)