ECMWF 6-week forecast until 18.10.2021: Europe, North America, World


In a raw estimate, the western half of Europe should until 18. October 2021 experience with late-summer or so-called “Indian summer” conditions, with warm temperature anomalies mainly in Iberia, France, British Islands, Iceland, firstly in Italy, Alpine region, Germany and southern Scandinavia, too, very shortly in the first week in East-Central Europe.

Parts of Eastern and gradually Central Europe will be on the contrary hit by severe frost periods and coldwaves with below-temperature anomalies. Cold weather is forecasted in Finland and northern Scandinavia, eastern half of Mediterranean including Turkey and ever Eastern Sahara, too.


Heatwave associated with weaker hurricane season period / will be gradually shifting from western above central and eastern USA in the next weeks and west coast and the Rocky Mountains will be gradually hit by the first coldwaves / Western and northern Canada will be gradually very cold, but central USA and Plains in Canada in the middle of October should hit the next period of Indian summer.


Several late-season coldwaves should hit parts of Australia and South Africa, while Patagonia stays warmer. Rain season will come into Amazon, with cold anomalies, Africa will be hot, only Eastern Sahara cold, Southeastern Asia stays very warm, India and China with cold and warm temperature fluctuations both, Japan firstly colder, then very warm, the first frost or snowing should surprise in the next weeks Western Siberia. Mexico will be gradually warm.


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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.