Experimental CFSv2 forecast for Summer 2021 in Europe: heavy storms, short peak in July and early autumn in August 2021!




In previous article we have looked at the next interesting outputs for Summer 2021 /https://mkweather.com/bad-news-cold-june-and-july-2021-pattern-in-europe-is-highly-probable//, which expect relatively cold Summer 2021 in Europe and large parts of North America and Asia (or across mid-latitudes).

Now we should look at CFSv2 outlook for the next 3-months for little steps between 29. May and 27. August 2021.

On 5-day precipitation anomaly maps we should notice, that stormy weather will be returning to continental Europe almost in every 5-day window of the period, what means, that Summer 2021 should have some similarities with extremely rainy Summer 2010 (similarly such as hot anomaly above parts of Russia and Central Asia and possible drought and wildfires in this region).

Relatively hot period is appearing on outputs between 10.-30. July 2021, with T850 hPa isotherma +15°C above southern Central Europe, what should mean a peak of Summer, with relatively longer period of tropical days, mainly in southern parts of continental Europe.

In Mediterranean, dry and hot weather will persist, but drought in western, central, eastern or northern Europe will be during next 3 months according to CFsV2 only limited.

Chances for drier weather will be from France to Ukraine mainly around the middle of the summer, in some 5-day windows will be storm activity above the continent divided from cyclonic activity above northern latitudes.

In August 2021, cyclonic activity from the north and colder air masses below +10°C in 850 hPa should arrive according to these experimental forecast, therefore, Autumn 2021 should come this year a few weeks earlier, although hot temperature anomaly should stay in eastern Europe, similarly such as in 2010, into August.

At all, colder Summer 2021 with persisting stormy situations is forecasted /approimately in these intentions: https://mkweather.com/summer-2021-in-europe-will-be-colder-such-was-forecasted//, while Mediterranean should preserve hot and dry conditions.

Outputs below are daily updated on /WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK/.

5-day period precipitation anomalies and T850 hPa in 5-day steps in Europe between 29.5. – 27.8. 2021

Source: weather model cfs seasonal – europe – height/temp. 850 hpa [base + 2160] | weatheronline

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Author: marekkucera
Writer about weather since 2007. The goal of this project is to inform a wide audience about extremes of weather, atmospheric circulation, and climate change around the world. If you like our work, you can support us on Patreon or donate.