Verification of seasonal forecast for South Africa (Summer and Winter 2021/2022 forecast for Africa: https://mkweather.com/winter-and-summer-2021-2022-forecast-for-africa/) appears relatively successful after very stormy and colder December 2021 in South Africa and neighboring countries.
A similar pattern is forecast to continue in Autumn 2022 /https://mkweather.com/spring-and-autumn-2022-forecast-for-africa-mostly-stormy-and-hot-south-colder//.
According to Vox Weather, more than 200% of the normal rainfall fell in December 2021 across large parts of South Africa.
Drier were only southern coast and eastern parts of the country.
Anomalously stormy were mainly central, western, and northern parts of the country.
It should be linked with the ongoing La Nina, which is bringing more stormy, colder, and fertile weather around many regions in the world /https://mkweather.com/el-nino-is-coming-autumn-2022-a-big-changes-in-circulation-patterns-worldwide//.
The last severe storms appeared in Eastern Cape.
“Mdantsane and Duncan Village in the Eastern Cape awoke the last weekend to fast-flowing water making its way through their informal dwellings, destroying property and leaving behind devastation. At least 6 people died and hundreds of homes were washed away.” according to /https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-01-09-gift-of-the-givers-steps-in-after-floods-kill-six-in-eastern-cape//.
The situation in the second half of Summer 2021/2022 should be even worse because the IOD pattern is shifting during the season from its negative (IOD-) to the positive (IOD+) phase.
It means, that Indian cyclones should hit all eastern and southeastern parts of Africa more frequently, such as usual, with some cyclones in eastern parts of South Africa.
According to the Autumn 2022 forecast (link above), East Africa expects the arrival of Indian cyclones in the next months, too, but regions of Mozambique and Madagascar should be paradoxically drier.
According to rainfall forecast until the end of January 2022, severe storms are possible mainly in the eastern half of South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, southern Congo, northern Mozambique, northern Zimbabwe, parts of Namibia, Angola, Gabon, Congo-Brazaville, Equatorial Guinea, southern Kenya, and southern Uganda.
In western South Africa, a peak of Summer 2021/2022 will be in the next months possible, near drier weather.
Summer 2021/2022 despite Australia and South America /https://mkweather.com/the-highest-temperature-in-southern-hemisphere-in-all-time-history-onslow-australia-507c/; https://mkweather.com/buenos-aires-411c-the-second-hottest-day-in-history-uruguay-419c-brazil-415c-and-will-be-worse// hasn´t produced extreme heatwaves in SAR, so far and for temperatures above +45°C in deserts is only waiting.
Source: Vox Weather Twitter
Source: wxcharts.com
