Signal, that cold weather should come from Northwest into Europe after an Easter




Only in the last article we have informed about possible coldwave in Europe in April 2021 after an Easter /https://mkweather.com/damaging-frosts-after-easter-2021-in-europe-15c-in-germany-in-april-is-a-bad-surprise//.

These forecasts are however only preliminary and coldwave shoulndn´t be so extreme, but still can surprise.

According to GFS outputs in mentioned article, the most hit region by severe coldwave should be situated in northern and western parts of Europe, including Germany, France, the UK or the Spain.

According to the newest ECMWF outputs, possibility of a pool of very cold air in northeastern Atlantic or northwestern Europe, respectively, will be here after an Easter, after extremely warm period before and Easter /https://mkweather.com/the-first-european-heatwave-in-2021-estimates-of-national-top-temperatures//.

According to Weather Regime frequency forecast from ECMWF, NAO+ pattern will be weakened during this period, what should be associated with cold blasts in more southern regions such as usual (upcoming warm spell will be strongly NAO+, with masses with tropical origin above mid-latitudes).

This cold air will shift above northern Atlantic on the back side of pressure trough, from which will be divided cyclonic system from Icelandic low into northwestern Sahara and simultaneously, on the front side of new strengthening Azores high.

This severe coldwave shouldn´t hit very strongly Central and Eastern Mediterranean, Balkan, Eastern Europe or East Central Europe, but for a few days, cold weather such as in Germany, France, the UK, the Spain or Scandinavia should appear around edges of main region with very cold air.

A new outputs from GFS /wetterzentrale/ will be updated in one of the next articles.

Infographics: ECMWF

Source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts

Temperature, precipitation and air pressure anomalies in Europe between 22.3.-3.5.2021 per weeks (from Monday to Sunday)

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