ECMWF forecast until 28. March 2022: 6-weeks of early spring in Europe ahead!
Already in the previous article, we announced a long NAO+ phase, lasting minimally until 17. March 2022 /https://mkweather.com/extremely-warm-and-sunny-spring-minimally-until-20-march-2022-late-season-frosts-or-snow-should-come-at-the-end-of-march-and-in-april-2022//.
According to the newest ECMWF 6-week forecast, even, weaker NAO+ and Blocking European pattern in the second half of March will bring very similar, very or extremely warm weather to Europe, too, which means, that a long, 6-week lasting early spring weather is ahead!
Practically every week in the outlook is for parts of western, northern and central, and mostly for eastern or southern parts of Europe, too, very or regionally extremely warm.
Such we mentioned in many previous articles, NAO+ is bringing in early spring temperatures up to +30°C in Western Mediterranean and up to +25°C in continental Europe (in March, February warm spells are in a few degrees colder, yet).
Meanwhile, Scandinavia should suffer extreme Icelandic lows with storms and severe winds, but this type of weather should warm up northern Europe the most (in comparison with the rest of Europe).
Although the first week should bring precipitation in Central Europe and the next weeks in the Baltic region or Eastern Europe, yet, all Europe will be gradually anomalously dry, with a persisting drought and possible problems in agriculture in southern countries.
On the other hand, weather will be very favorable for outdoor activities (but be careful in the mountains, cause avalanches should be deadly).
Meanwhile eastern half of the Mediterranean will be until March 2022 still cold and remnants of winter patterns and cold air should be bringing last winterstorms in February, while in March it will be already colder and dry pattern.
In Libya, Egypt, the northern Middle East, Turkey, and even Greece should be appearing cold blasts until the end of March 2022, even, with possible regional frosts or in southern regions ground frosts, snowstorms will be in comparison with December, January, and early February 2021-2022 already limited.
Late-season frosts with damages on harvest are therefore shifting for April 2022, so far (agree with earlier forecasts: /https://mkweather.com/will-bring-early-april-2022-extreme-frosts-in-europe-and-damage-to-harvest-there-are-the-first-signals//.
Illustration picture: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts