After the next NAO+ confirming forecast /https://mkweather.com/early-spring-is-coming-nao-with-blocking-admixtures-will-bring-very-warm-february-and-march-2022-in-europe// we will look in this article at the last 6-week temperature and precipitation outlook from ECMWF for Europe and neighboring regions.
While the southeastern sector of Europe, mainly Turkey, parts of Balkan, Black Sea region, or southern Russia should stay in the next 2 months colder, NAO+ will bring from the west and north gradual warming, especially in the western and northern half of Europe.
According to the ECMWF temperature outlook, the highest temperature anomalies until the half of March 2022 should appear in the 2nd February 2022 and the 2nd March 2022 week, so far, but other weeks will be in western and northern Europe very warm, too.
While the first weeks of February should be in Central Europe very wet, yet, very dry period is forecast for almost all parts of Europe between 14.2.-14.3. 2022, with a typical strong NAO+ pattern.
Such we mentioned in the previous article (link above), short-term coldwaves should cause mainly blocking pattern, especially in the eastern half of Europe (NAO- is bringing coldwaves to the western half of the continent, too, blocking pattern mainly to eastern half or central parts).
The pattern (NAO+) brought the extremely high temperatures in southwestern Europe and northwestern Africa already in the last January 2022 days /https://mkweather.com/early-spring-weather-is-coming-switzerland-214c-spain-267c-morocco-298c/; https://mkweather.com/tenerife-hit-floods-from-32-mm-rainfall-in-a-few-hours-agadir-morocco-already-317c// and this warm outbreak will be in the next weeks gradually continue.
Temperatures up to +22°C in mid-latitudes, almost +20°C in British Islands, or around +28°C in the warmest parts of the Mediterranean are possible in February peaks, in March, it should be summer days up to +25°C in mid-latitudes and +30°C in the hottest parts of the Mediterranean.
A possible long-term drought should be a problem for agricultural regions and an upcoming growing season, mainly in the Mediterranean and continental Europe.
NAO and temperature and precipitation forecasts will be regularly updated on Mkweather in the next weeks.
Illustration picture: ECMWF (link below)