Already in the last days, Greenland hit very probably the strongest early frosts in all-time history, when in Summit Camp, central Greenland, only -55,6°C on 7. November was measured /https://mkweather.com/summit-camp-greenland-556c-possibly-never-has-been-so-extremely-cold-so-early-in-the-season//.
Very cold Arctic in 2021 should be linked with a 26% greater Arctic Sea Extent such as the last year, and one of the 3 largest Arctic Sea Ice areas in the last 15 years /https://mkweather.com/arctic-sea-ice-extent-26-greater-than-last-year-12th-lowest-on-record-and-the-largest-since-2014//.
Extremely cold air masses are developing above the area, and already in the next period, they are prepared to come directly above Europe!
Before an extreme winter, we have warned on our homepage since late October 2021 /check https://mkweather.com//, but now, anomalous outputs are confirming several days in a row and it appears, that it should be historic late-November winter!
In the series of the next 6 articles we will look at outputs for 6 European regions: 1.) France; 2.) Spain and Portugal; 3. Germany and Alpine region; 4.) Poland and Carpathian region; 5. British Islands and 6. Scandinavia.
In France, extreme frosts up to -25°C in frost basins and valleys are possible. Very interesting will be watching a decline of temperatures at the station of La Brevine at 1042 MASL in the Alps, on the border with Switzerland, where are traditionally measured one of the coldest temperatures in the country.
In Spain, mainly in Pyrenees region and in frosts basins and valleys in northern parts of the country, -20°C should be measured according to current estimates, while Portugal should surprise with temperatures below -5°C in northern parts.
Germany and the Alpine region appear to fully sink into the Arctic, later Siberian air, with minimum temperatures in frost basins and valleys up to -25°C, maybe very rarely lower!
Extremely cold will be in Poland and Carpathian region too, in basins and valleys up to -25°C, Czechian famous frost valleys should reach extreme -30°C if conditions will be really good (lot of snow, very dry air,…).
In the British Islands, extreme winter from Greenland and the Arctic is very probable, too. In Scotland, temperatures up to -20°C should surprise, while England should report up to -12°C. Frosts around -8°C should surprise Ireland, too.
The coldest will be Scandinavia, with extreme and life-threatening frosts up to -40°C! These temperatures are at the level of the coldest temperatures measured in Europe in the month of November, excluding northern Ural, Russia. The most hit should be Norway – northern and southern parts, both, and northern Sweden.
A reason of a possible historic and very early coldwave in Europe we should find in the upcoming negative AO phase /https://mkweather.com/be-prepared-for-an-extremely-long-and-strong-coldwave-arctic-blasts-in-europe-between-10-november-15-december-are-expected//.
The newest outputs for Scandinavia from 9. November are even colder and the possibility of minimum temperatures in interval -35/-40°C is much higher, mainly in Lapland and Folldal-Fredheim region, southern Norway.
The reality in the coldest Scandinavian frost valley below 1000 MASL should be up to 10°C colder such as values on the GFS model – values above the coldest regions are thanks to black color currently not seen, but it’s possible, that they are moving around -30°C, what should mean frosts very close to all-time temperature November records, which are moving in these regions around -40°C (-35/-45°C).
Anomalous winter is forecasted to hit Oslo, Stockholm, and Helsinki regions too, with frosts around -15°C, maybe -20°C.
Maximum temperature in the coldest region should rarely reach only below -25°C, while in southern regions, rare Arctic days, with maximum temperatures below -10°C are possible.
Extreme night cooldowns will be dependent on a deep snow cover, calm wind, and very dry air masses, mainly from Greenland and Siberia – in the case, that all these 3 factors will meet at the same place, there will be a potential for historic frosts in air masses below -20°C in 850 hPa.
Before the arrival of Arctic and Siberian winter, severe blizzards with really impressive real-feel temperatures, in the mountains rarely below -50°C, should appear.
Extremely cold will be Iceland, Jan Mayen, or Svalbard, too and extreme winter will gradually shift above Murmansk and Arkhangelsk region, Russia, too.
Severe frosts should cause life-threatening conditions such as hypothermia, heart attack, viruses, or indirect traffic accidents, therefore stay safe, warm, and informed – Mkweather will be bringing updates of forecasted extreme winter conditions, furthermore.