An open data of ECMWF for the public sector offers a 6-week forecast for parts of the World and therefore, we should currently look at the last – the 6th forecasted week (ending by 20. December 2021) and then estimate the evolution of the move of predicted air masses a few days ahead, until 24.-25. December 2021.
In the European sector, mostly neutral temperature fields are before the Christmas 2021 forecasted, but from the Atlantic, will be moving above northern and western Europe after a long-term very cold period /see our homepage + https://mkweather.com/be-prepared-for-an-extremely-long-and-strong-coldwave-arctic-blasts-in-europe-between-10-november-15-december-are-expected// very warm, oceanic air masses, what should signalize a traditional singularity of so-called “Christmas warming”, mainly in northern and western parts of Europe.
The next very warm region on the map from ECMWF approximately a week before Christmas is situated in the Middle East, Turkey, and Egypt, which should mean, that this region will be before the arrival of a cold front and coldwave from eastern and southern parts of Europe, mainly Balkan, or Ukraine and Italy and more western parts of North Africa.
The first estimates for Christmas 2021 from the previous outputs we were published here: https://mkweather.com/the-1st-forecast-for-christmas-2021-warm-christmas-in-europe-north-america-and-asia/ and we are preparing the first estimates for the USA, Canada, and Mexico, too.
Therefore, from the last 2 ECMWF outputs, from 4. and 8. November, it appears for warmer Christmas in northern and western Europe, while Ukraine, Balkan, or parts of Turkey should surprise with severe frosts or snowy conditions.
The next update of the ECMWF 6-week forecast already brings temperature estimates for the period 21.-28. December 2021 – this forecast will be available already around 12. November 2021 and Mkweather then will update Christmas forecasts, again.
For now, it´s not fully known, if cold weather is between 5. November – 15. December 2021 in Europe will be around the Christmas interrupted by warmer period, or cold Winter 2021/2022 will continue, such as was forecasted in many Winter 2021/2022 forecasts /links for all latest Mkweather winter forecasts here: https://mkweather.com/winter-2021-2022-forecast-for-northern-hemisphere-an-awakening-solar-activity-la-nina-neutral-nao-ao-wet-mjo-and-iod-to-drier-mjo-and-iod-qbo-ne-pacific-warm-blob-aao//.
According to the last update, however, it´s possible, that extreme winter will return into Europe already in January 2022, when a possible peak of winter is, for now, expected (link above).
The very similar preliminary forecast for Christmas 2021 – Europe