ECMWF 6-week forecast for Europe until 4. April 2022: Extremely warm and windstorms and tornadoes possible more than was predicted
Already in the last article, we updated the ECMWF NAO regime 42-day forecast /https://mkweather.com/nao-leading-pattern-minimally-until-1-april-2022// and in a previous article, we updated the CFS outlook for Spring 2022 /https://mkweather.com/hot-and-dry-march-cold-and-stormy-april-and-may-long-term-forecast-for-europe-sees-a-return-of-cold-and-weather-patterns//.
In this article, we will show, that really warm times are predicted for Europe until 4. April 2022 and that windstorms and possible tornadoes in northern parts of continental and southern northern Europe should be more often than was predicted.
In the last outlooks /https://mkweather.com/92951/; https://mkweather.com/the-first-heatwave-of-the-summer-season-will-come-very-early-26-2-5-3-2022-the-mediterranean-30c-continental-europe-25c-british-islands-scandinavia-up-to-20c// it appeared, that very, or extremely warm spring weather will flood almost all of Europe in expectation of Scandinavia or Scotland.
The newest outputs are more favorable for windstorms and tornado outbreaks in the North Sea and Baltic regions, including Benelux, northern Germany, northern Poland, Baltic states, and during short periods even southern continental Europe.
Despite these significant interruptions of clear and calm weather, above-average very and extremely warm sunny days are predicted for many regions not only in the Mediterranean but too in continental Europe, during the peaking of the warm NAO+ period, even in northern parts of Europe.
Both, Azores high above southern and mostly central, and windstorms above northern, temporarily central Europe, will bring very warm spring weather, especially on the front sides of powerful cyclones, before cold frontal systems.
In the first April week, extremely warm weather should be continuing, yet, despite a significant weakening of NAO+ pattern and Azores high.
Possible late-season frosts therefore really come only sometimes after 5. April 2022 /https://mkweather.com/will-bring-early-april-2022-extreme-frosts-in-europe-and-damage-to-harvest-there-are-the-first-signals//.
Source: ECMWF – links below